Winter Storm Fortis to Bring Heavy Snow to Much of New England; May Undergo Bombogenesis

Written by on December 28, 2016 in United States of America, Winter 2016/17 with 0 Comments

By Brian Donegan
Published Dec 28 2016 09:53 AM EST
weather.com

Story Highlights

Winter Storm Fortis is expected to bring heavy snow and wind to parts of New England late Thursday and Friday.
Most of the heavily populated Interstate 95 Northeast corridor south of Boston will likely see rain.
Lake-effect snow will develop in the Great Lakes snowbelts on the backside of Fortis.
Winter Storm Fortis will bring heavy snow and wind to parts of New England, and the Great Lakes region could see heavy lake-effect snow during the final days of 2016.

Winter storm warnings are now posted from western Massachusetts to Maine, over areas likely to see the heaviest snow from Fortis. Lake-effect snow watches and advisories are in effect in parts of central and western New York.

A southward plunge of the jet stream, or upper-level trough, will intensify over the eastern half of the country beginning Thursday. In response, an area of low pressure will develop at the surface near the Northeast coast, and will be pushed northward into far eastern Canada.

This low is expected to undergo “bombogenesis”, a rapid strengthening within a period of only 24 hours, Thursday night into Friday. As a result, about a 12-18 hour period of heavy snow and strong winds is expected over much of New England.

Ingredients for Late-Week Storm

Here’s our current forecast timeline along with an outlook on who may see the heaviest snow from Winter Storm Fortis.
Thursday
Snow will spread from southwest to northeast, from the Appalachians of West Virginia and Pennsylvania to northwest New Jersey, New York state and New England.
Mainly rain is expected along the Interstate 95 corridor from Boston to Washington D.C. and points south and east of there, due to influences from the milder ocean air.

Thursday Night – Friday

This is the time period where low pressure near the New England coast intensifies (bombogenesis).
Snow, heavy at times, is expected virtually all of northern New England and portions of southern New England west of Boston.
Lake-effect snow will develop in most of the Great Lakes snowbelts as even colder air filters in on the backside of this storm system.
Both the New England snow and lake-effect snow will taper off later Friday as the low pulls northward into Canada.

Snow, Wind Outlook

Winter Storm Fortis will produce snow totals of 6 inches or more through Friday in the mountains of eastern West Virginia, as well as over a large swath of western Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.
Over a foot of snow is possible in parts of New Hampshire and Maine, where snow rates over 1 inch per hour may occur Thursday night into early Friday morning.
Lighter accumulations are expected the closer you get to the Interstate 95 corridor. Washington D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, and downtown Boston are expected to see rain.
Fortis’s strongest winds are expected to be along coastal New England and Long Island Thursday night into Friday, with gusts over 50 mph possible. This could lead to some tree damage and power outages.
Considerable blowing and drifting snow is expected in the winter storm warning areas from western Massachusetts to Maine Thursday night into early Friday.
The lake-effect snowbelts in Michigan, northeast Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, and western and central New York could also see 6 inches or more of snow by Friday night.
Be sure to check back with weather.com for updates over the next few days as we fine tune the details of this forecast.
Incidentally, “Fortis” (FOR-tis) is a Latin word for strong.

Watch this morning’s video.

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