The focus this Christmas weekend shall be on Storm Barbara which strikes later today into Christmas Eve and another deep depression, Storm Conor which shall hit Christmas Day.
Credit: BBC Weather
Credit: Met Office
Expect snow on the backside of Barbara, mainly on high road routes but mix to low levels is possible…
Christmas Day shall open mild AHEAD of the front and end cold BEHIND the front associated with the 2nd storm following Barbara.
Credit: Met Office
Credit: Met Office
It’s been somewhat of a disappointing December winter weather-wise and forecast-wise. Following a chilly November and open to December, the cold decided to pull east with Atlantic influence returning to the UK.
Here’s the December 2016 Temp Anomaly thus far. Mild in West but this could turn out to be one of the coldest December’s from NW Russia to Turkey!
Credit: Michael Ventrice
What essentially through my December forecast issued back on Nov 22 was the fact that the models didn’t show a strengthening polar vortex but the continuation of a weak circulation and given the 500mb pattern beneath, it seemed a lock that a cold month was on tap with little Atlantic influence. However, models may say one thing and mother nature often says another.
This cross section shows a lot of warmth within the stratosphere from Sep through early Dec which supported the rapid snow growth in Eurasia and helped provide a blocking North Atlantic and Scandinavia which delivered our chilly 2nd half to October and November.
50mb temps over the N Hemisphere currently.
10 days from now.
Given the recent strengthening and regrouping of the polar vortex over the pole and eastern QBO, westerlies would appear to be the driver from Atlantic to Europe in January and therefore the prospects of a bitter blast during January for Western Europe is off the table. However, just because the PV isn’t weak with prospects of splits or sudden stratospheric warming events, it doesn’t mean we cannot get cold and certainly the CFSv2 weeklies have been hinting at just that. This also doesn’t mean the polar vortex cannot weaken or even succumb to a sudden stratospheric warming event.
As it stands, I believe an average January is on the way with Atlantic influence through the first 10 days, then a pull back and potential for a colder pattern through the final 10 days of the month.
CFSv2 shows the remainder of December and 2016 warm.
Credit: WeatherBell
Then that warmth weakens and eventually gives way to colder times.
Credit: WeatherBell
Credit: WeatherBell
Credit: WeatherBell
Credit: WeatherBell
Credit: WeatherBell
Credit: WeatherBell
Credit: WeatherBell
When looking at the global view, the last week of January certainly reflects a -NAO signal.
Credit: WeatherBell
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