We have the next big storm system crossing the Great Basin and is soon to enter the Plains. The system has a distinct warm and cold side with the 2nd significant snowstorm set to hit the Northern Plains while on the warm side, record warmth will be had but not just that.

This thing has a distinct severe weather aspect which could pull this November out of record territory. While there’s two full days left of November, only 1 tornado has touched down.

Here’s an article from weather.com I wanted to share.

Record Low Number of Tornadoes Year-to-Date

Dr. Greg Forbes, a severe weather expert at The Weather Channel, has tallied 897 tornadoes so far this year, through Nov. 21. This is about 24 percent below average, or 288 fewer tornadoes, than typically occurs, according to the 20-year average through mid-November.

Only three months in 2016 have experienced an above-average number of tornadoes: February, March and August. August would have also been below average except for an tornado outbreak in Indiana and Ohio.

February was 191 percent above average for tornadoes with 102 confirmed tornadoes compared to the 20-year average of 35. Interestingly, 61 of the 102 tornadoes reported occurred Feb. 23-24 from the South to the mid-Atlantic, making it the second largest outbreak of the year.

May, usually the most active month, had the most tornadoes so far this year. The U.S. experienced 216 tornadoes in May, compared with the average of 276. The largest outbreak of 2016 was May 22-26, with 73 tornadoes.

October saw a total of 20 tornadoes reported, 68 percent lower than average.

U.S. Tornado Statistics Through November 21, 2016
(Source: Dr. Greg Forbes/The Weather Channel, NOAA/SPC)
*=Dr. Forbes’ estimated total; no * denotes actual number confirmed by NOAA/SPC

	Tornadoes	20-year Average
January	18	40
February	102	35
March	85	76
April	140	188
May	216	276
June	86	217
July	103	112
August	91*	72
September	36*	71
October	20*	63
November-to-date	1*	36
2016 Year-to-date	898*	1186

This lower-than-average trend has led to another interesting year-to-date statistic: Year-to-date 2016 has reached the fewest tornadoes reported since records began in 1954, when tornado reports are adjusted for inflation or overcount, according to the  Storm Prediction Center.

The other piece of good news is that there have also been only 12 tornado-related deaths so far in 2016. However, December can be a dangerous month as we saw last year when 26 deaths occurred on Dec. 23 and 26. Before those dates, 2015 was on track to see the fewest tornado-related deaths since 1950.

Second-Half of November

This autumn has been dominated by an upper-level ridge of high pressure over the central U.S. This has resulted in record-warm temperatures and relatively stable and quiet weather conditions across much of the U.S.

(MORE: Through October, Only One Other Year Has Been Warmer Than 2016 in the Contiguous U.S.)

There has been a southward dip in the jet stream over the Pacific Northwest and the Northeast at times, but this storm track has not allowed low pressure systems to tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, which can help to fuel severe thunderstorms.

Usually, in November, areas from portions of the southern Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley into the South and sections of the mid-Atlantic are at an increased risk for severe weather. The area at greatest risk for tornadoes stretches from eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley into Alabama and the western panhandle of Florida.

Late October-November is typically considered the “second” tornado season. This increase in tornadoes in the fall is due to the return of strong low pressure systems tracking farther south across the U.S., compared to summer. As colder air is pulled southward and warm, moist air flows northward, this clash can result in greater instability, which enhances the risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

(MORE: Second Tornado Season)

Changes have begun to take place. A cold front brought an end to the record-warm temperatures this past weekend and brought the first snow of the season for some areas of the Upper Midwest and interior Northeast.

Another low pressure system moved into the Plains Tuesday bringing rain and thunderstorms. One tornado was reported in Kansas which, if confirmed, brings the tornado-free streak to an end. Otherwise through Thanksgiving week, severe thunderstorms are not likely.

This Storm Setup Is Just Right

Watch today’s video.

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