SIBERIA SNOW/COLD HELPING SUSTAIN BALMY NORTH AMERICA WEATHER?

Written by on November 7, 2016 in United States of America, Winter 2016/17 with 2 Comments

There is most definitely a lagging effect from the El Nino and record warmth it’s brought through last summer and fall so far with it continuing into November.

So where the heck is the cold? It’s in Eurasia where we’ve likely got the greatest extend of October/November snow cover since 1998.

Credit: weather.com

Credit: weather.com

Via Simon Cardy

Via Simon Cardy

While folks from Rapid City to Minneapolis walk around in shorts and t-shirt, this is the scene TODAY in Stockholm, Sweden.

Via via @kien1974 @puneetnagi

Via via
@kien1974 @puneetnagi

Moscow, Russia last night.

Credit: @NovostiMsk

Credit: @NovostiMsk

All the while it’s t-shirt weather in Minneapolis.

Credit: Gita Sitaramiah ‏@GitaSitaramiah

Credit: Gita Sitaramiah ‏@GitaSitaramiah

Even up in typically chilly (by now) Winnipeg, folks watch fire performers in their t-shirts.

Credit: CTV Winnipeg ‏@ctvwinnipeg

Credit: CTV Winnipeg ‏@ctvwinnipeg

There’s no disputing that the core of Northern Hemisphere warmth has been over North America since meteorological fall began back on September 1 but while Eurasia grows colder why is there no cold on the NA side of the pole?

Climate Reanalyzer

Climate Reanalyzer

The lagging effect of the El Nino and residual warm Pacific waters combined with frigid air blowing off eastern Siberia has enhanced the North Pacific jet stream and deepened the Aleutian low creating stormy conditions over the North Pacific, Gulf of Alaska and the NA West Coast.

Credit: weather.com

Credit: weather.com

In turn this strong trough dip out over the Pacific has forced persistent ridging over the Lower 48.

Credit: weather.com

Credit: weather.com

With drought and warmer than normal water, record warmth has managed to hold on with northward surges reaching all the way to Alaska thanks to an unusually north positioned jet stream over NA despite a weakening sun.

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Records Are In Jeopardy For Latest First Freeze in the Midwest

By Linda Lam
Published Nov 7 2016 05:53 AM EST
weather.com
Story Highlights

Many cities in the Midwest have not seen their first freeze of the season.

The warmer-than-average temperatures are expected to continue, which will likely break more records.

Another side effect of the record warmth that has dominated much of the U.S. since October is the lacking of freezing temperatures. Many cities in the Midwest have yet to see the thermometer drop to the 32-degree mark and now records are in jeopardy.

A persistent upper-level ridge of high pressure has brought warmer-than-average temperatures to the Plains, Midwest, South, and at times the Northeast. There does not appear to be a pattern change until mid-November at the earliest.

Numerous daily record highs were set at the end of October and beginning of November and a few monthly record highs were even broken for November. More record highs were set over the weekend, including in Minneapolis which hit 73 degrees Saturday, and in Milwaukee which hit 70 degrees Sunday. This trend now has its sights set on breaking records for latest first freeze.

(MORE: Why Has Much of the Weather in the U.S. Been Quiet Lately)

Temperatures below freezing have been hard to come by lately in the contiguous U.S. You need to head towards northern New England and some of the higher elevations of the inter-mountain West to find freezing conditions. Consequently, locations that would have normally seen their first freeze of the season are still waiting.

Current Temperatures

Current Temperatures

Areas shaded in blue and purple have current temperatures 32 degrees or colder.

Minneapolis is one of the cities that have yet to see temperatures dip to 32 degrees. The current record for latest freeze is Nov. 7, set more than 100 years ago in 1900. This record is expected to be broken as lows are expected to be in the 40s through Tuesday, Nov. 8. Temperatures may get close to the freezing mark this coming Saturday morning.

In addition, Minneapolis may also break the record for longest streak of days above freezing. Through Nov. 6 the current streak is at 208 days and the record is 215 days set in 2010.

It is also interesting to note that Minneapolis has only seen their first freeze in November seven times since 1873; the last this occurred was in 1958.

La Crosse, Wisconsin, will also likely see its latest first freeze if the temperature stays above 32 degrees through Nov. 7. That record could be extended right through late this week before temperatures flirt with the freezing mark this coming weekend.

Dates of latest first freeze on record and average freeze based on data from 1981-2010.

One location that has already set a record for longest stretch between freezes, according to ACIS, is Grand Rapids, Michigan. Through Nov. 6 the streak is 208 days and the previous record was 198 days set in 2000. They have yet to hit the freezing mark so the streak continues. They may also break their record for latest freeze, which currently stands at Nov. 14, but temperatures may get close to 32 degrees this coming Saturday morning, which would just miss the record by two days.

Another Michigan city that could set a new record for latest freeze is Detroit. The current record is Nov. 15, which was set in 1946. The Motor City may come up just short of that record with lows around 32 degrees this weekend.

Madison, Wisconsin is another location that may come close to their latest freeze record. The current latest freeze is Nov. 12, and lows may slip to near 32 degrees by Saturday morning.

Another city to watch is Des Moines, Iowa, where lows are expected to approach 32 degrees late this week. The current record is Nov. 13 so it will be interesting to see how close to the freezing mark temperatures drop.

For several other Midwest cities, the record latest first freeze is still more than a couple weeks away. This includes Kansas City, Missouri, and Chicago, which both have records for latest freeze on Nov. 24, as well as St. Louis, Indianapolis and Cleveland which have their latest freezes currently on Nov. 27.

(MORE: November Outlook)

November temperature outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM business.

Even if records are not broken, many locations will see their first freeze a month or more later than their average first freeze.

Farther east, many cities in the interior Northeast have already seen their first freeze, but along the East Coast they are still waiting for the winter chill. This is not unusual though, as Boston, New York, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. all normally see their first freeze in November, with their record latest freezes occurring in December.

(MORE: Siberia Is Being Clobbered With Snow and That Could Mean a Harsher U.S. Winter Ahead)

There are indications than a southward dip in the jet stream may develop over the East in mid-November, which may bring some colder temperatures to the region. It will be interesting to see if some East Coast cities see their first freeze before parts of the Midwest.

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  1. Kathleen says:

    BTW, congratulations regarding upcoming birth of your 2nd child. When is the baby due? Be sure to keep us all tuned in! I have six grown children and one of my daughters had twin boys in March of 2015. They’re cute as can be but what a handful! Best of luck to you and you’re family.
    On a weather note we’ve been back and forth between Nashville TN and LA this year and it’s been a lesson in weird weather wackiness. It’s been unbearably hot in Nashville in the 80’sF (with high humidity, dew pt.) while oddly cool and refreshing @ poolside in Beverly Hills at 104F with very low humidity. But we’ve mostly been in Nashville where it’s been unbearably hot (& I’m heat intolerant so must shiver under the AC.)
    But, I do believe that the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge (RRR) will (eventually) set in once again off the Pacific Coast and force cold air from Siberia up, over, & down into the US East somewhere? everywhere? via the inevitable trough which hopefully will dive deep & wide covering all of us overheated folks East of the Mississippi with many big snowstorms from end of NOV to end of MARCH.
    Oh, and plenty of rain in the Spring, too so the entire East doesn’t go into a CA-awful
    drought. But of course I also hope that CA gets rain soon. Everyone’s in denial there but climate science dictates CA has (historically) had many excruciatingly long droughts, lasting 30 years and much longer. Every time I mention the subject to fellow Californians they kind of roll their eyes and try to pretend I didn’t bring it up. They’re in total denial…

    • Mark Vogan says:

      The drought situation will remain in CA for some time and the Southeast is worsening. What a LONG summer it’s been. Thanks for the kind words, Kathleen. Baby No 2 is due early February! Hope you and the family are well.

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