GET READY! COLD NOW BUILDING OVER RUSSIA WILL REACH UK/IRELAND NEXT WEEK!

Written by on October 28, 2016 in Autumn 2016, Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Unless something dramatically changes, the first taste of winter should reach UK shores early next week and the trend is for colder as the week progresses.

In recent posts/videos I’ve broken down the details on the evolution to this early start to winter with weak polar vortex and -AO laying the ground work early over Siberia.

Snow cover expanding fast and ahead of schedule.

screen_shot_2016_10_27_at_10_12_13_pm

screen_shot_2016_10_27_at_10_12_25_pm

However, the next step in getting that cold west into Europe and with ridging currently over the UK, this supports an eastern Europe trough and with low pressure, moisture and cold, you get snow and that’s what we’re seeing more and more over eastern block countries.

How do we get that cold further west towards Germany, Low Countries and indeed UK/Ireland? Force an unprecedented early season split in the unusually weak polar vortex. That’s one thing but more importantly and something not seen in a couple of years, position the warmth at 50mb position over east Greenland and Iceland and that’s where your blocking high at 500mb will go as well as over the Eurasian side of the Arctic.

Credit: WSI energy

Credit: WSI energy

That forces the building cold in Siberia westwards under the high and should reach the UK early to mid next week.

eur196

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

ECMWF

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

850mb temperature anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

GFS operational

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

How much snow makes it to the UK? Tough to say and given the time of year, it’s even more difficult to say. These Arctic/Siberian intrusions can deliver snow only to the mountains or could be stronger, bringing surprise snow even to low levels.

Here’s the GFS snow forecast through the next 10 days.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

See this morning’s video.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]

Follow us

Connect with Mark Vogan on social media to get notified about new posts and for the latest weather updates.

Subscribe via RSS Feed Connect on YouTube

Leave a Reply

Top