EVOLUTION OF AN EARLY SEASON COLD PATTERN FOR EUROPE

Written by on October 27, 2016 in Asia, Autumn 2016, Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Snow cover continues to expand across Eurasia ahead of schedule thanks to a weak polar vortex and persistent -AO induced northern blocking.

cursnow_asiaeurope

Moscow and Kiev both woke to their first snowfall this morning with 20cm locally.

Via Блізкі космас ‏@nadvorie

Via Блізкі космас
‏@nadvorie

Kiev, Ukraine last night.

Credit: dimitar ‏@dimitar

Credit: dimitar ‏@dimitar

Moscow before daybreak this morning.

Credit: Michael Prepelitskiy ‏@MikePrep

Credit: Michael Prepelitskiy ‏@MikePrep

Via Tyler B Roys

Via Tyler B Roys

This cold trend doesn’t appear to wane but intensify as we head for November with the Arctic Oscillation looking to sink deep into negative territory after a very brief surge towards neutral.

ao-fcst

And so the snows continue to grow and expand westward into Europe.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The weak vortex and strong -AO enforced blocking will continue to support a solid cold pattern throughout Northern Asia.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

What’s most fascinating is that we currently have an on-going polar vortex split which is likely to trigger a negative North Atlantic Oscillation which will build heights north into Greenland and Iceland and thus the westward drifting Siberian cold looks to make a UK visit.

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Credit: WxBell

Credit: WxBell

nao_fcst

Check out the below GFS ensemble NH 2m temperature anomaly. Note how Western Europe starts off warm (now) but as the warmth builds into the Arctic, so the cold currently over northeast Asia eventually reaches Ireland.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

GFS 850mb temperature forecast.

Credit: chorleyweather.com

Credit: chorleyweather.com

Credit: chorleyweather.com

Credit: chorleyweather.com

Credit: chorleyweather.com

Credit: chorleyweather.com

One important aspect to this PV split I think is worth mentioning. The positioning of the warmth at 10mb or down 50mb within the stratosphere is different to recent years. How so? Well any displacement or split has seen a piece of the vortex drift into the Europe or Greenland side of the pole which has supported a trough underneath, hence cold is redirected into other parts of the mid latitudes. This time around it appears to be favouring Western Europe.

See today’s video.

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