FREE: United States November 2016 Outlook (Includes Video)

Written by on October 26, 2016 in Autumn 2016, United States of America with 0 Comments

The post El Nino dominance of warmth holds strong through meteorological autumn’s second month.

This was September…

Credit: Michael Ventrice

Credit: Michael Ventrice

Despite a strong -AO, the warmth continues.

total-obs

October so far!

Credit: Michael Ventrice

Credit: Michael Ventrice

That trend even continues into early November…

cvrufcwviaatmy2

Another warm month to come?

I believe the first half of November will continue to see a warmer than normal pattern over the Midwest and East while the Pacific and West continues to see storm systems. However, as we progress through the month’s second half, the atmosphere continues to cool across the north with the growth of snow cover across Canada, the feedback to atmosphere changes and leans more and more towards a winter mode and so while I expect heights to remain positive over or near Hudson Bay, the western trough should begin sliding in underneath and so a cooler, more unsettled pattern should start to have influence from Nov 20th on.

Warmth and ridging should noticeably deflate through the second half of the month. I suspect more Pacific brand cold rather than arctic through the second half of the month so cold yes but nothing extreme.

The below CFSv2 weeklies show the ridge over trough pattern showing up after a warm, ‘ridgy’ first half to the month in the East.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

No getting away from the fact the warmth dominates through November’s first half.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

CFSv2 for November overall.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Travel Vermont @VermontTourism

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