NORTH AMERICA TEMP CONTRAST & STORMS DRIVE THE WESTERN EUROPE PATTERN

Written by Mark Vogan on October 20, 2016 in Autumn 2016, Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

As your well aware, we’ve a very blocked up pattern with high pressure repositioning back into Scandinavia while Atlantic lows get diverted into Iberia and south-central Europe. However, the driving mechanism to our weather can be traced back to North America.

In today’s written post I want to show you the GFS jet stream chart through the next week or so as this nicely depicts the track in which storms are likely to go.

Unseasonably warm air is soon to get pushed off the US East Coast as cold Canadian air rushes in behind a developing storm system. This is giving the jet a kick as it moves out over the Atlantic, only to get split N-S as it approaches Ireland thanks to the boulder in the stream. As you can see from the below charts, the southern branch is strongest and in the dip or trough, a major storm system develops west of Portugal.

There is uncertainly as to see how influence the fronts of the northern side of the low will impact N France and southern Britain into next week but this system looks to deepen and become a major player in the weather across Iberia as well as NW Africa but the models have this fading.

As we progress through next week, another system comes off North America, once again providing an injection of energy to the jet stream and it’s this which manages to shift the huge blocking high SE. Another anomalous high central out in the middle of the Atlantic looks to be pumped and shoved NNE into Ireland and the UK, recasting the upper atmosphere and forcing low over high which brings a more typical late October position of lows tracking across Scotland or Iceland.

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Credit: chorleyweather.com

GFS 500mb geo potential heights show the Scandinavian block getting pushes ESE as a new system coming off North America drives another strong high to the east of it N and E into the UK.