WEAK VORTEX, -AO, PERSISTENT SCAND BLOCKING, FAST SIBERIA SNOW GROWTH, ALL A GOOD SIGN!

Written by on October 19, 2016 in Asia, Autumn 2016, Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

At this time last year, the polar vortex was strong and continuing to strengthen, likely influenced by the heat discharge emitted by the oncoming Super El Nino with a firm low over high pressure hemispheric 500mb pattern. This laid to dominant zonal, oceanic influence on both North America, Europe and indeed Asia.

This year it’s been weak and this along with a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation has helped produce a rather blocky autumn thus far.

The strong Scandinavia blocking pattern we experienced through the first 10 days of October looks to be making a comeback as the high currently migrating from near the Azores, builds ENE over the UK and eventually repositions over Scandinavia.

FEATURE IMAGE SOURCE: Creative Boom

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Credit: WSI

Credit: WSI

This is a favourable pattern for building the Eurasian snowpack, an important feedback factor later!

Check this GFS snow forecast through the next 10 days for both Asia and Europe.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

 

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Check out this GFS surface chart for early next week and notice a low over eastern Siberia and mega 1051mb high over NW Russia. This is drawing arctic air south and helping turn much of northern Russia from Europe to Pacific white.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

GFS ensemble shows a colder-than-normal pattern pretty much throughout Siberia and Northern Asia through the next 15 days. A positive indicator for all us winter weather lovers here!

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

For Europe and particularly Northwest Europe, a high returning to Scandinavia/NW Russia but extending west out over Ireland and the Atlantic means the continuation of a cool, quiet, easterly flow dominated pattern and this looks likely to persist through the remainder of October.

Current GFS suggests a possible blip with Atlantic front edging into NW UK but that’s about it as the high appears to hold.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eu_27

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

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