NICOLE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HURRICANE UNUSUALLY FAR NORTH, PROMOTES COOL, SETTLED WEATHER

Written by on October 17, 2016 in Autumn 2016, Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Before we focus on the Western Europe short range I want to pan out and look at the bigger picture because it’s this that explains the finer details.

Firstly, Nicole remains a hurricane and a hurricane that’s getting unusually far north.

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As you can see from the below NHC track forecast this system is expected to remain a hurricane beyond 55N or on the same latitude as Cork, Ireland.

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The HWRF out to early Wednesday shows a deep extra-tropical cyclone containing the remains of Nicole to the south of Greenland as a powerhouse sub-946mb core.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  53
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
500 AM AST MON OCT 17 2016

Nicole continues to exhibit a tropical appearance on satellite
imagery, with a ring of cold cloud tops surrounding a large ragged
eye.  The current intensity is reduced to 65 kt based on recent
scatterometer data, and this is also consistent with the latest
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  Although not much weakening
is anticipated during the next couple of days, the cyclone is now
expected to lose tropical characteristics in 24 hours since, by that
time, it should be over SSTs colder than 20 deg C.  Soon thereafter,
the system is forecast to become attached to a nearby frontal zone
and make the transition into a vigorous extratropical cyclone.  By
96 hours, global models show the low being absorbed by another large
extratropical cyclone near Greenland.

Nicole continues to move northeastward at around 8 kt.  The system
has yet to get caught up in the stronger mid-latitude westerlies
that lie just to the north.  However, a shortwave trough moving
through Atlantic Canada should cause Nicole to accelerate
northeastward soon.  As the trough amplifies, the cyclone is likely
to continue to accelerate and turn north-northeastward to northward
later in the forecast period.

The 12-ft seas radii and predicted wind radii, as well as the
position and intensity forecasts are mainly based on analyses and
forecasts from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 41.0N  45.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  17/1800Z 42.5N  43.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  18/0600Z 46.0N  40.0W   65 KT  75 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
36H  18/1800Z 51.5N  37.0W   65 KT  75 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  19/0600Z 56.0N  36.0W   60 KT  70 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  20/0600Z 65.0N  32.0W   50 KT  60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  21/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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ECMWF 500mb geo potential shows Nicole and the high to the east both lifting northward settling things down over the UK and Ireland.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Before we reach mid to late week when it’s a pleasant by day, cold by night scenario, we’ve an eastward moving cold front to contend with through today packing frequent, blustery showers and a noticeable temp drop behind. Winds were blowing out of a mild SW direction during Sunday, they are currently blowing out of the west today but tonight sees an abrupt shift to the northwest behind the cold front which will contain a spell of enhanced wind and rain.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Tomorrow will be noticeably colder with daytime temps stuggling to get above 10C over Scotland and N England, 12-14C even in the Southeast where it’s 18C this afternoon.

Tomorrow’s maximums off GFS.

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Expect snow levels to drop towards 3,000ft overnight tonight.

Credit: BBC Weather

Credit: BBC Weather

Feeling raw in the wind, downright bitter over the Highlands above 2,000ft.

Credit: BBC Weather

Credit: BBC Weather

Then the high builds and the low mrolls over the North Sea into the near continent but it’s influence will continue to affect eastern England with NNE winds, showers.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

See today’s video.

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