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The large scale pattern remains much the same through the remainder of this week with only suttle changes. Those changes are all courtesy of an undercutting low pushing into Iberia which increases the pressure gradient between high and low, so winds from the ESE steadily pick up over the UK and within the shower clouds streaming in off the North Sea, it will certainly feel like October as our air flow is originating all the way back to a rapidly cooling Russia.
The Scandinavia high continues to hold back the Atlantic and although we can expect more organised rain late week, further north nights remain cold with rural frost likely.
A southward diverted low will bring wetter, windier and cooler conditions into Spain and Portugal but the weekend sees a decrease in pressure further north and therefore a breakdown in the ridge is coming for the UK and Ireland with a wetter weekend looking likely.
Into next week and I see the Atlantic returning as the high shifts east. The reason looks to be down to strengthening Tropical Storm, soon to be Hurricane Nicole.
Check out the shift in upper pattern between this week and next!
ECMWF
See this morning’s video.
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