NORTHERN EUROPE BLOCKING HIGH TO SETTLE WEATHER DOWN NEXT WEEK

Written by on October 1, 2016 in Autumn 2016, Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Following the frequent showers of today across England and Wales, tonight looks to be Scotland and Northern Ireland’s coolest since spring thanks to the sunshine of today giving way to starry skies tonight.

Clear sky, light wind, a cool air mass and nights now longer than days all contribute to much more effective radiational cooling. Rural areas will dip into low single figures tonight with frost possible outwith urban centres.

radiational-cooling

Credit: chorleyweather.com

Credit: chorleyweather.com

The pattern has been turbulent over the last 10 days in particular with increasingly deep lows bringing unseasonably strong winds to Scotland. However the models show a building upper ridge over Scandinavia which should extend as far east as Russia and as well west as the UK, trapping a cold cut off upper low beneath.

This high will act as a barrier to incoming Atlantic fronts UK airspace early next week, shielding the UK from 95% of the incoming weather. Only the W/N of the UK will see the cloud, wind and rain but that’s early next week as mid to late week fronts could remain offshore. That suggests largely settled and sunny conditions day and night across the bulk of the UK and much of Europe.

Trapped beneath the banana shaped Scandinavia high in the 6-10 day particularly, expect not just cold but snow over the Alps as well as parts of Germany, Poland, possibly Russia too.

Credit: TropicalTidbits

Credit: TropicalTidbits

GFS ensemble 5-day mean 500mb height anomalies.

Credit: TropicalTidbits

Credit: TropicalTidbits

Credit: TropicalTidbits

Credit: TropicalTidbits

Credit: TropicalTidbits

Credit: TropicalTidbits

5-day mean 2m temperature anomalies.

Credit: TropicalTidbits

Credit: TropicalTidbits

Credit: TropicalTidbits

Credit: TropicalTidbits

Credit: TropicalTidbits

Credit: TropicalTidbits

See this morning’s video.

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