SEPTEMBER ON TRACK TO BE WARMEST ON RECORD FOR UK?

Written by on September 17, 2016 in Rest of Europe, Summer 2016, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

We’re only through the first half of September 2016 and the average temperature is already running a full 3C above normal, helped greatly by the incredible warmth in the East over the last week.

Record breaking September already beating summer months

The provisional mid-month statistics for September are in and clearly show the unseasonably warm weather the UK has been experiencing.

In the first half of September the UK was on average warmer than June, July and August with a mean temperature of 15.9°C, 3.3°C higher than the average September. Norfolk and Suffolk have seen the biggest variance from the average with temperatures so far 4.3°C over the September average.

The hottest day of the year was recorded in Gravesend on 13 September at 34.4°C, the last time the hottest day was in the month of September was in 1954 and recorded at Regents Park. The last time there were three consecutive days above 30°C in September was 1929.

Minimum temperatures were also significantly higher than average. The minimum temperatures in North West England and Eastern Scotland were 3.8°C warmer than average.

These higher temperatures both through the day and night have been caused by warm and humid air being drawn up from the Continent. The map below clearly shows the increased average maximum temperatures across the UK in September so far.

Map showing 1-14 September 2016 mean maximum temperature anomaly from month average (1981-2010).

Map showing 1-14 September 2016 mean maximum temperature
anomaly from month average (1981-2010).

  Max temp (°C) Min temp (°C) Mean temp (°C)
1-14 September 2016 Act Diff from avg (8110) Act Anom (8110) Act Anom (8110)
UK 19.6 3.1 12.3 3.5 15.9 3.3
England 21.4 3.5 13.1 3.5 17.2 3.5
Wales 19.3 2.7 12.6 3.5 15.9 3.1
Scotland 17.0 2.7 11.0 3.5 14.0 3.1
N Ireland 18.3 2.2 11.8 3.2 15.0 2.6

Although unseasonably warm, there have also been some wet conditions across the UK. Northern Ireland has had 71% of its average rainfall for the month, with County Fermanagh already surpassing the expected average with 101.8mm of rain so far this month. Some of this rainfall has been intense causing some surface water flooding. The early hours of 16 September saw Swanage in Dorset receive 31.8 mm and Cavendish in Suffolk 22.2 mm of rain in an hour.

  Rainfall (mm)
1-14 September 2016 Act % of avg (8110)
UK 46.8 49
England 29.7 43
Wales 72.7 62
Scotland 65.1 48
N Ireland 65.0 71

FEATURE IMAGE CREDIT: Queensferry Crossing @NewForthBridge

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Summer In Autumn To Continue

Given the outlook for the second half with a strengthening jet stream yes but crucially positioned NW of the UK, we will see some cool, wet and windy days, particularly towards the end of next week and through the weekend however there’s plenty more ridging and warmth before the end of the month which could make this September the UK’s warmest on record.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

On the whole, it’s a relatively dry pattern through the next 15 days with the exception of week 2.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

NO POST TOMORROW. NEXT UPDATE MONDAY AM.

See this morning’s video.

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