WEST EUROPE: Tropics Energise Trans-Atlantic Jet Stream Continuing The Fluid, Unsettled Pattern

Written by on September 7, 2016 in Rest of Europe, Summer 2016, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Hurricane Newton and the remnants of Hermine off New York are both pumping tropical warmth and energy northward. By doing so, the thermal gradient increases and so does the jet stream in response. As well as that, our warmer, more humid atmosphere south of the jet stream can also warm more than normal and so when the jet is north or a storm system is still to arrive, a warmer, more humid air mass can lift into the UK.

Our source region for the current unusually warm, muggy September air has been exceptionally hot with Morocco, Algeria and Spain recording temperatures 5-10C above normal.

Southern Spain scorched to a record breaking 45.4C Sunday and 45.7C yesterday.

Yesterday

Credit: Meteoceil

Credit: Meteoceil

Hurricane Gaston which dissipated en-route to Iceland helped bring this late season record heat and humidity to Western Europe.

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So, expect our trans-Atlantic jet stream to intensify, continuing our unsettled but often warm pattern. Like we know all too well this summer, no one day is the same. It may be warm and humid now but the next front is fast approaching and set to bring cloudy, wet and breezy conditions during Thursday followed by another two this weekend. AHEAD of these fronts, expect warmth and humidity to lift north followed by a refreshing clean out of the atmosphere as the Atlantic flow returns.

Warm by day and very humid by night has made uncomfortable sleeping at night. Lows the last two nights would have been very warm in July and August never mind September.

Thanks to a very warm and moist air mass, yesterday morning may have been a record breaker. These we’re minimum temps.

Credit: BBC Weather

Credit: BBC Weather

This morning was no better.

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As you can see from the below GFS jet stream charts, we continue to see lows spin off North America and deepen over the open Atlantic prior to sweeping towards Iceland or Northwest Scotland.

Credit: chorleyweather.com

Credit: chorleyweather.com

Credit: chorleyweather.com

Credit: chorleyweather.com

Credit: chorleyweather.com

Credit: chorleyweather.com

Credit: chorleyweather.com

Credit: chorleyweather.com

Credit: chorleyweather.com

Credit: chorleyweather.com

Temperatures this afternoon are warm surface all the way up to 850mb.

Current surface

Credit: Meteoceil

Credit: Meteoceil

Credit: Meteoceil

Credit: Meteoceil

GFS forecasted 850mb temp.

Credit: chorleyweather.com

Credit: chorleyweather.com

Low pressure will create a seesaw swing in temperatures at 850mb today through Monday. Warm out ahead, cooler behind.

Credit: chorleyweather.com

Credit: chorleyweather.com

Credit: chorleyweather.com

Credit: chorleyweather.com

Credit: chorleyweather.com

Credit: chorleyweather.com

See this morning’s video.

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