All the ingredients came together this afternoon as expected. It’s a very warm, steamy and stormy afternoon for much of southern and Midland England thanks to a low spinning near the mouth of the Bristol Channel and associated warm front pulling hot, humid continental air northward into the front zone.
The combination of high heat and humidity streaming in at the low levels and mid and upper winds blowing in from the WSW means high CAPE (level of instability) and shear (varying wind speed and direction with height) and this is the recipe for severe or supercell thunderstorms, the trigger is of course the NNW moving warm front as well as the low itself which cools the upper levels over the warm, juicy mid and low levels and this increases the LAPSE RATE, difference in temperature with height. The greater the difference between surface and say 18,000ft the greater the upward motion within the column. The strong clusters initially crossed Wiltshire and Dorset earlier dropping 30mm (over 1 inch) of rain within 30 minutes, 1mm per minute and is now crossing the Midlands.
The calm before the storms this morning.
Current radar. Some very intense cells currently crossing the Midlands!
Here are those storms firing up over inland Southwest England.
Lots of lightning associated with these storms.
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Potential rainfall totals by 1am Sunday morning.
Yellow warning remains in effect.
Fresher air sweeps through London and Paris for tomorrow as warm front over UK becomes cold front.
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