There’s always high levels of uncertainty when it comes to tropical systems entering the mid-latitude pattern, especially when your looking up to a week out. Former storms or hurricanes adding energy, often energising the jet stream and enhancing baroclinicity. Many September’s gone by have seen stormy weather with direct hits from former hurricanes, probably the most notable of recent times was Katia back in September 2011 which brought 89 mph wind to Scotland, even Glasgow Airport reported a gust of 72 mph.
Surface chart from Sep 11, 2011
Enduring the worst of Katia from Saltcoats
They can also change a long term pattern. For example wet, unsettled Augusts have been known to give way to a warm, settled September’s as former tropical systems can recast the North Atlantic/Europe atmosphere by pumping heat into the atmosphere and forcing high pressure formation or intensification as well as weakening out ahead. It sure is complex.
It remains unclear as to what Gaston will do through next week, it’s simply too far out at this time.
We really aren’t sure as to how strong this system will get as a hurricane and that can be determine it’s track.
As Gaston lifts into the cooler and more hostile environment of the North Atlantic, it’s tropical properties inject energy into the trans-Atlantic jet stream which could force Gaston to redeepen as a cold core baroclinic depression.
The big question is this, does it track towards the UK, Iceland or Iberia. At the moment, Gaston pumps the ridge over the UK out ahead which forces the cyclone underneath towards Portugal.
The most recent analogy’s based on current projections suggests a more southerly track of Gaston. The GFS as seen above takes the system south but the ECMWF slows the system down.
Model sprays still points in the general direction of the UK.
More in the coming days.
See this morning’s video.
FEATURE IMAGE CREDIT: Daily Mail
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