When I had a look at the latest sea surface temperature anomalies yesterday I got a surprise to see just how much the waters surrounding Scotland in particular had cooled to between 2-4C BELOW NORMAL. At the beginning of the month it was above normal.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Even more so when the 2-3, even 4C drop came within just 7 days.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Actual SST’s.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Alvesgaspar
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Note the 10C off Scotland’s north coast, that’s chilly for August when you’d expect surrounding waters to reach their peak warmth at this time of year.
Why the sudden temperature drop when water cools slower than land?
Remember the gales which drove a huge oil rig onto the shores of Lewis and gust to 115 mph over Cairngorm?
The upwelling is caused when you’ve unusually deep Icelandic low pressure over a strong Azores high pressure which increases the gradient and wind. Gale-force wind blowing over 2,000 miles of ocean for over 24, even 48 hours will certainly force cold water from deep below to rise.
What effect may warmer or colder water have for the upcoming autumn?
As you know, SSTA’s can play a significant role on influencing the atmosphere above, you only have to look at ENSO and the global effects from El Nino and La Nina but even local warming and cooling plays a big factor.
So what could a colder SSTA go to the UK’s weather pattern as we head towards autumn? Firstly A cold pool needs to hang around in order for the atmosphere to respond. It could support a drier, more settled autumn with higher pressure overhead. That is what I am leaning towards for September and possibly October but if waters re warm, it could be opposite and provide a wetter early autumn.
See this morning’s video.
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