US: Warm Records Go Through The Roof Thanks To El Nino, Tropics Finally Wakening?

Written by on July 28, 2016 in Summer 2016, United States of America with 0 Comments

Before I get into the tropics, the below graphic off the weather channel caught my eye and got me thinking.

Yes, we are seeing a tremendous and potentially unprecedented level of warmth in 2016 not just in the US but globally due to the natural atmospheric reaction to the record tying El Nino. I say potentially because I cannot turn round and say for certain that this is the warmest our planet’s ever been given the short period of record keeping and satellite measurements.

The below graphic clearly shows record warm minimums winning followed closely by record highs with just a small number of record cold maximum and minimums.

Credit: weather.com

Credit: weather.com

However, many will fail to show that there was OVER 35,000 record cold highs alone set in 2014.

Credit: weather.com

Credit: weather.com

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June 2016 has gone down as the warmest in US history.

averagetemp-monthly-cmb--620x450--2016-06-00

There is no question, the first 6 months of 2016 has seen unprecedented GLOBAL warmth due to the remarkable output of ocean heat into the global atmospheric circulation.

jan-june-2016

Tropics Beginning To Waken?

Climatologically, you would expect June and July to be relatively uneventful in the tropics with ‘net’ ocean temperature still largely below the 80F threshold and atmosphere still hostile. Once into August, the atmosphere becomes more conducive with lowering pressure

As we’ve seen a lot of recent hurricane seasons, Sahara dust has been deep and extensive spanning the entire Atlantic from Africa to Caribbean, even Florida and Mexico.

sal-animation-5-12july2016-nasa

The below maps show just how large these dust plumes are.

Meteosat-9 split window Saharan air layer satellite product over the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean at 1715 UTC, July 12, 2016. At left, the SAL is shown by the yellow, orange and red shading off the African coast. At right, the contiguous United States overlays the SAL, for scale. (Jason Dunion and UW-CIMSS)

Meteosat-9 split window Saharan air layer satellite product over the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean at 1715 UTC, July 12, 2016. At left, the SAL is shown by the yellow, orange and red shading off the African coast. At right, the contiguous United States overlays the SAL, for scale. (Jason Dunion and UW-CIMSS)

The first big wave, embedded within the AEJ (African easterly jet) coming off Africa now has less dry, dusty air around it and models have more where this came from.

vis-l

rb-l

SST’s in the east tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

See this evening’s video.

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