Disappointing UK Summer Continues With No Heatwave In Sight

Way back in the early spring I shared my thoughts on the upcoming summer and stated that when looking back at previous El Nino to La Nina transition years, the pattern does not favour warm and dry but quite the opposite.

Upper anomaly through June 2016.

Via Stuart Markham

Via Stuart Markham

2m temp anomaly for July so far!

Credit: Michael Ventrice

Credit: Michael Ventrice

This, like last year is going to be a summer we’d rather forget. After a great summer in 2013 and good summer in 2014, we’ve slipped back into the ‘poor summer’ trend we endured between 2007 and 2012 when there was no sustained or prolonged warm, dry spell lasting more than a week.

The jet shall bounce between the UK and France and unfortunately looks unlikely to go to our north. If it does, it’s brief.

Credit: ukweatherforecast.co.uk

Credit: ukweatherforecast.co.uk

Credit: ukweatherforecast.co.uk

Credit: ukweatherforecast.co.uk

Credit: ukweatherforecast.co.uk

Credit: ukweatherforecast.co.uk

Credit: ukweatherforecast.co.uk

Credit: ukweatherforecast.co.uk

It’s one of those classic summers when models see high pressure and warmth building over the UK in the 6-10 day only to be crushed a day or two later with a very different solution. We have just seen that and it won’t be the last that the models give us false hope.

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Stuart Markham of Chorley Weather posted on the current MJO (Maddan Julian Oscillation) state and showed charts on what the upper air pattern of the northern hemisphere should reflect.

The MJO appears to be entering phases 1 and 2.

ensplume_small

This is the upper height pattern we can expect. This simply reinforces the forecast Stuart and I have had all along, the continuation of Icelandic low pressure dominance and a supressed ridge to the SSW.

P1

Via Stuart Markham

Via Stuart Markham

P2

Via Stuart Markham

Via Stuart Markham

EPS Control shows trough near Iceland, ridge to the south next 15 days supporting the continued Atlantic influence with driest and warmest favouring SSE Britain but frequently cool, wet and windy across N England, Scotland and much of Ireland.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

August outlook as per latest CFSv2

glbz700MonInd2

euPrecMonInd2

euT2mMonInd2

Not much change from what we’ve seen so far…

Looking for a colder winter in 2016-17? The below QBO will need to dramatically change… hint hint…

qbo

See this morning’s video.

No posts tomorrow. Next update will be Thursday AM.

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