COOL/UNSETTLED: CFSv2 Going To My Long Standing July Idea For Western Europe

Written by Mark Vogan on June 30, 2016 in Rest of Europe, Summer 2016, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The rest of this week and through the weekend will be dominated by a brisk, cool westerly air flow crossing Ireland and the UK with frequent showers piling in accompanied with longer spells of rain. There will be some sun but it’s limited.

Plenty of rain to pile into particularly Scotland over the next 5 days.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

GFS surface

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The combination of gusty west winds, cloud and frequent showers will supress daytime temps significantly. Following the record warm open to July 2015, mid and late month hosted some of the coldest July days on record here over Scotland and the next few days may not be too far off the values we shivered in last July.

CLAV84XWcAAI4Vd

GFS forecasted highs for tomorrow (Jul 1st)

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Don’t be surprised to hear reports of snow over the tops of the Scottish Mountains in the next few days.

CmMh7IeWIAUk172

The point of today’s post is all about whether this pattern holds or will it break to bring us at least some summer through July? While you’ll not want to hear this, I’m liking what the CFSv2 monthly and weeklies are showing for July and that’s because it nicely coincides with my the forecast I’ve had since April. Cool and frequently unsettled looks most likely with just short lived settled, warm spells.

FEATURE IMAGE CREDIT: Simon Cardy

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

CFSv2 July 500mb height anomaly