EL NINO IN EUROPE: It’s Rise In 2015 Brought Drought & Heat But It’s Fall In 2016 Brings Floods

Last weekend saw Europe’s skies ignite with over 300,000 lightning strikes. Paris and Germany of course grabbed the headlines with dozens seriously injured by direct hits. Through the course of this work week, the attention turns to flooding or flash flooding in the very same areas.

Blame an omega blocking pattern which has a ‘locked in’ low surrounded by strong high pressure.

Credit: weather.com

Credit: weather.com

A persistent Greenland blocking pattern continues to position high pressure over Northern Europe and lower pressure across the South.

Credit: Keraunos ‏@KeraunosObs

Credit: Keraunos ‏@KeraunosObs

This trapped low spinning over Germany is pulling in increasingly warm, humid air from the Med. Cool within this low increases water vapour within the atmosphere and so it wants to storm and dump a lot of rain. So, day after day we’ve seen heavy, thundery rains. With ground saturated, flooding worsens with river levels forced to rise.

Within just 5 days parts of France has seen 2-3 MONTHS worth of rain and as a result iconic images are beginning to appear within the heart of Paris and other parts of the continent.

The complex of turbulent weather draped across the continental mainland has made it’s presence felt over the UK where we have opposite conditions to what you’d expect.

Cloud and outbreaks of rain have plagued London for a few days now.

Credit: Ingrid Jansen ‏@organiseurhouse

Credit: Ingrid Jansen ‏@organiseurhouse

Up here, well you’d mistake Glasgow for London or Paris!

475506_10150868226098052_368502778051_9881350_450786809_o

Within a very soggy pattern, the May 31st deluge tipped Paris and much of Northern France over the edge.

Keraunos ‏@KeraunosObs

Keraunos ‏@KeraunosObs

Take a look at these incredible images from the French Capital.

Credit: Sebastien Mabile ‏@SebastienM

Credit: Sebastien Mabile ‏@SebastienM

An impressive before and after shot!

24 hour difference!

Credit: Marc Hay ‏@Marc_Hay75

Credit: Marc Hay ‏@Marc_Hay75

Credit: Marc Hay ‏@Marc_Hay75

Credit: Marc Hay ‏@Marc_Hay75

Before

Via: Lauren ‏@LoveTheStew / Vincent Cerutti @ceruttiofficiel

Via: Lauren ‏@LoveTheStew / Vincent Cerutti
@ceruttiofficiel

After

Via: Lauren ‏@LoveTheStew / Vincent Cerutti @ceruttiofficiel

Via: Lauren ‏@LoveTheStew / Vincent Cerutti
@ceruttiofficiel

Seine River level rise entering historic levels.

Credit: Keraunos ‏@KeraunosObs

Credit: Keraunos ‏@KeraunosObs

It’s not just Paris… over a month’s worth of rain fell yesterday from SE corner of the Netherlands (below) as far east as Poland.

Credit: William Huizinga ‏@WilliamHuizinga

Credit: William Huizinga ‏@WilliamHuizinga

Bavarian Alpine communities in southern Germany have been devastated by flash floods.

Credit: AJ+ ‏@ajplus

Credit: AJ+ ‏@ajplus

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It’s interesting to see the amount of water in the ground across Europe whereas here in sunny Scotland, I looked at the river levels on my drive north to Inverness yesterday. They we’re perhaps the lowest I’ve seen in a couple of years.

June starts off opposite to last year when Scotland was cold, wet and windy with heavy snow falling on June 2.

Credit: Mark Vogan

Credit: Mark Vogan

This was the scene in Paris when I visited back on June 8, 2015. Northern France was turning increasingly dry but the ground was wet up here.

Credit: Mark Vogan

Credit: Mark Vogan

Credit: Mark Vogan

Credit: Mark Vogan

360 Degree Turn Coming?

So, wet for Europe, dry across much of the UK across Scandinavia, does this mean the heat goes towards the UK and across Northern Europe with cool, wet persisting across southern Europe? Not necessarily. Based on the past, analogs and model guidance, I see the flip coming which allows more typical June weather over Spain, France and across Europe while low pressure becoming anchored near Iceland once again, I think we return to much more unsettled weather.

GFS ensemble snapshots show the upper level turnaround over the next 10 days.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

 

See today’s video.

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