High To Hold Over UK Into Next Week, First 40C+ For Spain, 30C+ Paris, London Late Next Week?

A strong west-east high pressure zone centred north of Scotland is reversing our upper flow pattern bringing weather in from the ESE. The messy weather seen over the continent during the past weekend is now making it’s presence felt across England today and certainly made it’s presence felt in Paris yesterday before reaching London today. Further north and it’s clear blue skies and warm sunshine.

Heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms cover SE/E England this morning.

This morning’s radar

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Lightning map

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Rainy Paris yesterday, London today but glorious once again in Glasgow…

PARIS (Credit: Gaston Gaudio ‏@gastongaudio)

PARIS (Credit: Gaston Gaudio ‏@gastongaudio)

LONDON (Credit: Otto Car ‏@OttoCarUK)

LONDON (Credit: Otto Car ‏@OttoCarUK)

GLASGOW (Credit: ekosgen ‏@ekosgen)

GLASGOW (Credit: ekosgen ‏@ekosgen)

More disappointment at Roland Garros.

Credit:: BBC Sport

Credit:: BBC Sport

How’s Tuesday looking?

Credit: Met Office

Credit: Met Office

This system decays as it advances NW into a strong high pressure field. The northerly blocking high will extend south through the second half of this week and will provide largely fine and dry conditions to the UK and Ireland into early next week.

Sunny skies and light winds in early June usually mean 20s for most of inland Britain and Ireland. Give or take some areas of coastal mist, onshore breeze haar or inland pop-up showers/storms, the outlook is looking great.

FEATURE IMAGE CREDIT: Bryan Hogg @skihog

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However, our warmest air masses come when lows position to the west of Ireland providing a connection with Africa. While our air flow the next 5 days remains predominantly easterly which makes for cool east/warmer west, next week sees the return of Atlantic weather with strongest heights focusing over NW Africa and Spain. The approach of Atlantic low pressure triggers a south/east flow. Spain looks to see it’s first heat surge next week with widespread 30s and 40s for the interior south.

We could see this warm plume extend north with the help of low pressure to the west. A hot Spain and stiff south/southeast flow driving up through France often brings us our warmest air. Going by the last few model runs, 30C is likely in Paris and cannot be ruled out in Southeast England mid to late next week.

GFS forecast PM temperatures Wed/Thu/Fri next week.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Heat surges lifting from Spain to the UK often results in Northern Ireland and Scotland being under the cloud, rain and cool.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Sizable thermal contrast between the cool, wet and windy SE (14-16C) and sunny NW where 24C isn’t out of the question.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

GFS ensemble is bullish on a warm 6-10 day from Spain to UK with ‘African connection’ but takes a step back in the 11-15.

500mb anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

2m anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

See this morning’s video.

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