South Carolina Tropical Hit This Weekend, Texas Up Next A Little After Next Weekend?

As promised, this Memorial Day weekend has brought the first widespread and record 90s throughout the Eastern US just as folks enjoy the ‘unofficial start to summer’. We also saw not the first but second named tropical storm of the season which made landfall in South Carolina yesterday. When was the first? Remember that rare hurricane which developed back in January?

Upper setup supporting record heat in Northeast and tropical cyclone beneath over South Carolina.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

These we’re the record highs set Saturday.

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Spectacular sunrise looking across NY Harbour Friday morning.

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As for Bonnie, she crawled ashore as a depression packing winds of just 35 mph but the rain will be more noteworthy as she takes nearly 3 days to clear to Carolinas alone.

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Rainfall estimates for past 72 hours from Bonnie.

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While there’s a flood threat for the Carolinas, I can’t help but notice the additional rainfall expected over Texas over the next 5 days.

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FEATURE IMAGE CREDIT: Mary Champion McCune @MaryChampion

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As we progress through this week, Bonnie craws up and eventually off the coast, helped to get a kick out by front sweeping in from the Ohio Valley. This slices the heat and marks the large scale shift in upper pattern by next weekend.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

While ridging returns to West and trough to East, a system bringing more storms and flooding to Texas takes energy out into the Gulf and the models see something developing.

ECMWF sees something wsw of Florida.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

GFS south of Houston.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Note in the below GFS ensemble 7-day precip anomalies how the first week is wet in Texas and dry the following week but there’s a lot of moisture along the coast extending out into the Gulf while there’s a lot in the Caribbean also. Tropical trouble?

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Will have a video again in the morning.

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