I Heard There’s Meant To Be A 3-Month Long Record Heat Surge… What Like 1976?

A selection of the latest heat hyped headlines from the past week.

Hottest summer in 100 years: Brits set to bake in record-breaking temperatures of 38.5C

Bank Holiday weather: Brits to bask in 22C heat as UK set to be hotter than Spain

This article from May 21 is particularly garbage.

UK weather: El Niño could give Britain its hottest summer for 100 years

MY ANSWER: THERE IS NO SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE IN ALL THE TOOLS WE HAVE WHICH SUGGESTS A HOT SUMMER IS ON THE WAY, IN FACT BASED ON PAST ANALOGS FROM PREVIOUS EL NINO TO LA NINA SUMMERS HAVE STRONG CORRELATION TO NEGATIVE HEIGHTS & SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. HOWEVER, THAT DOESN’T MEAN WE CANNOT GET SPELLS OF WARM TO HOT WEATHER!

I wish to add that most summers which deliver hot, dry conditions for prolonged periods such as the infamous summer of 1976, more recently 2003, 2006 and to an extent 2013 all coincide with solar maximums, building El Ninos and peaking warm AMO’s and not when there’s a cool N Atlantic, onset of La Nina and when the solar cycle is heading towards a minimum.

th

Stuart Markham of Chorley Weather looked back at all previous El Nino to La Nina summers since 1950 and this was the result!

570403192d49a_allninaflipyears_PNG_d3264728e728aacc777f4bb76fd4b6bf

Note the difference in SSTA’s between May 1 and now. UK waters are went from below to above normal.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Cold in N Atlantic, warm surrounding UK supports high WNW and wetter for UK.

Nothing out of the ordinary is showing up on the latest CFSv2 weeklies through June 21!

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

2m temperature anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

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Though the AO/NAO has differing influence at different times of the year, the next 15 days certainly doesn’t hint at particularly anomolous ridging and heat for the British Isles.

ao_sprd2

nao_sprd2

A negative AO/NAO summer in transitions years look like this…

570403336dc50_pre1950laninaflips_thumb_PNG_5db374c46cf982434e3bd3137d8786bd

I think we’ve a negative AO/NAO summer on the way.. Opposite of a hot, dry summer with stress to water supply and agriculture.

The last few days have been cold beneath thick cloud, breeze and outbreaks of rain.

Yesterday’s highs.

Credit: Meteoceil

Credit: Meteoceil

Last night’s rush hour in Edinburgh made all the more gloomy by the cold, rainy conditions.

CjZrktTWUAA1RMx

It’s jacket weather here across Central Scotland this afternoon.

This afternoon’s UK temps.

Credit: Meteoceil

Credit: Meteoceil

A Descent Weekend Gives Way To A Cold, Wet & Windy Bank Holiday Monday

Give or take some showers and thunderstorms, the bank holiday weekend for the UK isn’t looking too bad but Monday? That’s a different story. Messy picture across the continental mainland though!

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Coastal gales likely.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

See today’s video.

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  1. richard says:

    Yet again i would say newspapers sensationalising headlines to sell their papers ,just as back in winter the worst winter for decades headlines ,they really should be held accountable with no evidence to back these headlines up in my opinion ,thanks,Richard.

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