US: Stormy Plains, Tropical Trouble Brewing, Bye Bye El Nino

Want to cover a few things going on just now but firstly, take a look at this morning’s visible satellite animation. Firstly note the flare up of deep convection over the heart of Texas where further flooding rains and severe weather will affect this region and further north over the mid-Mississippi Valley. Today promises to be another stormy one with increased tornado potential.

Secondly check out the flare up over the eastern Bahamas.


The infrared shows up the land and sea convection better.


Storms become strong and fairly widespread over the Heartland this afternoon, enhanced by strong daytime surface heating and spin from low pressure on the western Plains.

SPC has an enhanced risk over the Central Plains today.


The GFS surface shows rain and storms picking up later today as well as some symmetry forming within the convection over the E Bahamas, a sign of organisation.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

GFS as well as most other models sees the development of the 2016 season’s 2nd named storm.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

NHC give a HIGH chance of development.


El Nino Bows Out

For the last 12 months, El Nino has been the big global weather story likely causing a record hot year, heat waves, biblical rain storms and drought. However, this phenomenon is officially gone but it’s effects live on. We’re now seeing the rapid formation of La Nina which should play a role in the late summer and particularly winter 2016-17.

January 2016


May 12, 2016


Just look at the rapid and steep cooling of the eastern equatorial Pacific within just the last 3 months.


Major cooling at 55m below the surface in just the last few weeks!


Ocean heat content reversed this spring.


Modelling indicates that we could be in a moderate to even strong La Nina by fall.


Video should be available later this evening.

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