EUROPE NEXT WEEK: High Over Low Supports Settled North, Unsettled South

It would seem the Atlantic-Europe weather pattern has been fairly slow moving and stuck during the March-late May period with high pressure stacked either over the Atlantic or Iceland and in recent weeks hooking up with Scandinavia, holding lows further south.

The next 7 days or so sees little difference as heights once again build strong between Iceland and Scandinavia while low pressure gets stuck west of Iberia and sheds fronts across Portugal and Spain while another low is anchored over Turkey.

FEATURE IMAGE CREDIT: Leanne @leanne6981

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At this time of year, heat and humidity is closer by. Twin lows over SW and SE Europe pull hot air from Africa into the heart of Europe and this hot air also collects a lot of moisture as it crosses a warming Med Sea. Warm, humid air over much of continental Europe with lower heights supports widespread thunderstorm formation and stormy weather. Just look at the images I showed you from Italy in yesterday’s post!

GFS ensemble 500mb height anomaly snap shots show the strong northern ridge once again holding lows south.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The big picture indicates high pressure dominates Northern Ireland and Scotland but the warming continent turns increasingly unsettled Spain to Russia including all of France, Low Countries and the Southern UK this bank holiday weekend on into next week.

A low which formed along the Dutch coast is spread thick cloud, enhanced breeze and outbreaks of rain into Northern England today making it distinctly chilly and dreary. Sunshine up here in Scotland and N Ireland but cloudy and cooler than yesterday though dry over Southern England and Wales.

Credit: BBC Weather

Credit: BBC Weather

Tomorrow sees more cloud with outbreaks of rain over Southern/Central Scotland. Brighter/warmer across England and Wales.

Credit: BBC Weather

Credit: BBC Weather

Next week is likely to see low pressure across southern Europe with energy and warmth lifting towards the Southern UK. This supports a warm, thundery setup across Iberia/France/Southern Britain and the Low Countries while the best of the weather will be across Northern Europe from Northern Ireland to Finland.

With the high across the north and low SE of the UK over the Low Countries, it looks like a cool flow crossing the North Sea will make for an east-west split over the UK next week. The 2m 5-day mean temp anomalies show this.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

See this morning’s video.

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