Finally… Summer-like Weather Heads For Spain, Portugal But Wind & Rain For UK

Hope you enjoyed the largely fine, dry and pleasant weekend of weather because it’s going downhill this week as the high deflates to the south opening the Atlantic up. If you happen to be heading south for an early holiday to Spain, Portugal or Western Med, the weather is finally settling down and warming up.

The recent cool and unsettled weather over Spain has built up a significant and pretty impressive Mid May snow pack within the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

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This morning’s infrared shows clearer skies over Iberia while the first eastbound bank of cloud looms off Ireland.

Credit: EUMETSAT

Credit: EUMETSAT

GFS ensemble 5-day 2m temp anomaly shows the cooling over UK and warming over Iberia.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The 6-10 has more pronounced warming over Iberia with the strengthening of the Azores high.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Focus of rainfall next 10 days is across the UK and Scandinavia.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

FEATURE IMAGE CREDIT: Brandon Iron @BrandonIron

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The big question for us here in the UK is how long does this westerly unsettled pattern last. There is cross model agreement and day by day consistency at rebuilding the ridge north before the end of the month which resettles and warms our pattern once again.

Here’s the ECMWF deterministic surface for this work week.

First low arrives Tuesday PM.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Next Thursday.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Remains unsettled across Northern UK Friday.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Continues into Saturday.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Sunday looks messy.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Warm High Pressure Set To Return…

As we look further ahead, both EPS Control and GFS ensemble in the 5-day means shows the trough holding through the next 10 days over the NE Atlantic while we’ve a strong Azores high bringing warm, sunny conditions to Spain and Portugal but in the 10-15, the high is back over the NE Atlantic.

EPS Control

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

GFS ensemble

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

See this morning’s video.

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