The last 30-days of rain has been well above normal from Texas to Montana and to a lesser degree across the central Intermountain West as well as the Mid-Atlantic but despite recent rains for the Northeast, it’s been very dry here as well as the Tennessee Valley and much of the Southeast. The driest compared to normal is probably the Pacific Northwest.

Given the lag between El Nino and it’s huge atmospheric influence, the southerly storm track continues to drive systems from Pacific across the Rockies and into Texas. With the Gulf heating up, humidity being drawn northward is still generating major rain events. The series of troughs or upper cold pools which swing through Texas weaken as the push E or SE from Texas but this leads to a supressed height field over the Southeast while the ridge gets pumped further north across the Great Lakes and Northeast.

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The below ECMWF 500mb height anomaly snap shots show the ribbon of negative extending from Central West across the Southern Tier while higher pressure is attracted to the dryness of the Northwest.

Firstly, the cold trough sweeping through the Northeast today started off in Montana last weekend is cover the Great Lakes and crossing the Northeast today and supressing daytime days by a solid 10-20, locally 25 below normal while the unstable atmosphere will generate snow showers which is likely to bring rare accumulation to high elevations stretching from Upstate New York to West Virginia.

As stated, the chill was focused over the Northern Rockies mid last week. From 80s one day to snow the next!

Thu 5th

Tue 10th

Big temp drop!

Then swept through the Northern Plains Thursday-Friday.

North Dakota: From 90s to snow within 6 days!

Fri 6th

Hot sunshine and smoky skies from Ft McMurray fire.

91 degrees at Crosby

Thursday 12th.

Saturday morning lows.

Upper Midwest Saturday.

Now it’s the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic’s turn.

Rime ice build up on Mount Washington Observatory, May 9.

Snow falling on the summit this morning.

 

A cold night ahead.

With the southerly storm track and plug of warm, moist air off the Gulf of Mexico, flooding rainfall remains a significant threat to Texas.

So does severe weather.

Rain amounts really mount up from Texas through Tennessee Valley next 10 days. Dry over Dakotas and New England in particular.

Next 5 days

7 days

10 days

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