Polar-Maritime To Replace Warm Continental Over UK, W Europe This Weekend

A simple shift in the position of high pressure and wind shift means big changes coming late week as we loose the warm continental connection and draw in polar maritime air again.

Credit: Met Office

Credit: Met Office

It was another glorious day up here across Scotland Tuesday but another dreary, soggy one further south.

Visible satellite from yesterday shows a cloudless Scotland but cloudy, damp England and Wales.

Credit: NOAA

Credit: NOAA

Warmest readings once again up along Scotland’s West Coast communities.

Credit: Meteoceil

Credit: Meteoceil

For a second straight day, Lusa, Isle of Skye was the UK hot spot. However, Baltasound, Shetland only mustered 9C. A great example of the different wind blowing over water and land amkes at this time of year!

Credit: Met Office

Credit: Met Office

It even reached 10C on Cairngorm Summit yesterday but factoring in wind gusts over 60 mph, it didn’t feel just as pleasant as down in Aviemore where it was 13C warmer at 23C.

This mild weather has of course significantly eaten away at the deep snow pack of just 10 days.

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The warmth may be easing back but we shall remain mostly sunny with upper teens, low 20s widely across Scotland today, 24C possible in the West Highlands once again. With the front edging a little further north today, drier, brighter and warming conditions return to southern England.

Credit: Met Office

Credit: Met Office

Not a nice morning in the South.

Credit: BBC Weather

Credit: BBC Weather

Gloomy skies over Central London earlier.

Credit: BBC Weather

Credit: BBC Weather

Note the difference up here.

Credit: Traffic Scotland

Credit: Traffic Scotland

TOP IMAGE CREDIT: North Coast Life @Ncoastlife

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It’s typically the other way about!

When it comes to the NAO, we typically think winter but even in summertime, this index can be a great tool to better see longer term, larger scale patterns.

nao_sprd2

As you can see, we’re going from positive where it’s promoted warmth widely across Europe into negative and this, coincides nicely with the cooling trend seen by all models.

This afternoon and tomorrow afternoon’s temperature anomaly according to the GFS.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Friday/Saturday afternoon.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

gfs_asnow_eu_29

This weekend’s cool down means much chillier here but up over 4084ft Cairngorm, nights go back below freezing and days struggle to get above with snow possible.

Credit: Met Office

Credit: Met Office

Climate data for Cairn Gorm Summit, Elevation: 1,245m (1981–2010)
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year
Average high °C (°F) −1.3
(29.7)
−1.5
(29.3)
−0.9
(30.4)
1.5
(34.7)
4.3
(39.7)
7.1
(44.8)
9.5
(49.1)
9.2
(48.6)
6.9
(44.4)
3.9
(39)
0.8
(33.4)
−0.5
(31.1)
3.3
(37.9)
Daily mean °C (°F) −3.4
(25.9)
−3.8
(25.2)
−3.0
(26.6)
−1.0
(30.2)
1.7
(35.1)
4.4
(39.9)
6.9
(44.4)
6.6
(43.9)
4.5
(40.1)
1.6
(34.9)
−1.3
(29.7)
−2.8
(27)
0.9
(33.6)
Average low °C (°F) −5.5
(22.1)
−6.1
(21)
−5.0
(23)
−3.4
(25.9)
−0.9
(30.4)
1.7
(35.1)
4.2
(39.6)
3.9
(39)
2.1
(35.8)
−0.7
(30.7)
−3.3
(26.1)
−5.1
(22.8)
−1.5
(29.3)

Average high is just 4C in May though!

When that index goes back into positive, we look for warming again and this is likely beyond the 20th.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Expect the high to go briefly NW then south into the Bay of Biscay, this opens the western door again and the return of a more unsettled pattern through next week.

See this morning’s video.

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