Official United States Summer 2016 Forecast

The El Nino of 2016 had significant influence on the boreal winter of 2015-16 and it’s influence is now extending into spring. However, the El Nino is on it’s way out and giving way to likely La Nina conditions by mid to late summer but the ground work of the decaying El Nino will have already shaped the upper atmosphere for the first half of summer.

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Current SSTA’s (sea surface temperature anomaly) already show cooler than normal water developing off South America.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

sstaanim(16)

Cg4MgmaWMAE3h81

Despite the quick decay of the El Nino, it’s already had significant influence on storm track and rainfall distribution during late winter and spring. This is making for a good indicator on where the temperature is heading for at least the first half of the warm season. As your probably well aware, wet attracts cool and dry attracts warm.

20160426_usdm_home

The incredible turnaround in Texas from drought to deluge will have long lasting effects on the atmosphere above. A pattern where strongest heights compared to normal across the North and lower heights underneath is likely to persist.

The last 2-3 summers have been cooler and wetter over the Plains and Midwest but with drying out of the soils across the Northern Tier and the onset of a La Nina, I suspect the heat will be on from Pacific Northwest to Northeast June-July with potential for an early heat wave with multiple 90-degree + days but cooler and wetter than normal from Four Corners to Texas, perhaps extending into Florida and Southeast.

A significant heat wave is possible late June or early July across the Central and Northern Tier with temperatures exceeding 95F widely, 100s over the Central and Northern Plains where ground is dry and continuing to dry.

The Northeast could see several hot spells with the DC to Boston corridor threatening 100F. Texas will be hot at times but the heat may be limited due to wet ground.

During the second half of summer, say from late July through August and extending into September, I believe Texas and the Southern Plains dries out and heats up and with a stronger than normal ridge positioning over the south-central region, the Southwest monsoon should get going, extending northward into Montana late summer.

Canadian month by month

June

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

July

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

August

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

CFSv2 June-August projection

850mb temperature anomaly

glbT850SeaInd2

temperature anomaly

usT2mSeaInd2

Precipitation anomaly

usPrecSeaInd2

Be sure to watch the video for more.

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