Strat Warm Induced -AO/NAO Likely To Cast Shadow On ‘Early Summer’ Over WSW Europe

Written by Mark Vogan on April 8, 2016 in Rest of Europe, Summer 2016, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Given the build-up of pressure specifically from Atlantic up over Greenland into the arctic at this time of year in response to tremendous strat warming event through late March, expect cooler than normal to rule through the rest of April over the UK and especially south into Iberia.

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This is a blocking pattern that will be hard to shift quick and therefore I suspect a trough will hold and linger through the rest of April to the SW of Ireland while a ridge dominates central and eastern Europe. This is likely to keep things coolest and unsettled from southern UK down through France into Iberia.

The CFSv2 weeklies show the -NAO signal lingering into May which suggests no sign of summer into the UK this month anyway.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The CFSv2 2m temp anomalies do suggests some warmth lifting north but if anything it’s modest and likely down to strong sunshine by day beneath cool high pressure influencing the UK from north and not south. To me, this supports plenty of sunshine, showers, mild by day but cold still by night.

Notice Europe is warm through first 10 days or so then it turns cool.