Saying Good By To The High Just In Time For Easter, -40C In Russia

For the best part of 10 days, high pressure has been dominating the Northwest weather pattern, supplying us with a sustained dry period which has allowed substantial drying out of our saturated ground.

It seems typical that our weather is changing just ahead of the Easter weekend.

Quite the thermal contrast across the continent yesterday. Note the -22 high and -40 low in NW Russia!

Credit: Meteoceil

Credit: Meteoceil

Credit: Meteoceil

Credit: Meteoceil

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The next 48 hours will see high pressure weaken but hold just enough to keep most dry but as we see surface heights drop below 1016, so fronts will begin to spread cloud, increased breeze and rain across Ireland and the UK, albeit rather weak in nature. However, this opens the door to a more significant front late Wednesday into Thursday and by this stage, the high is shoved south and east.

Here’s the current 500mb height anomaly chart.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

As you can see, the ECMWF holds the high through tomorrow but heights are well down from the weekend 1028/1032 surface pressure.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

The breakdown has commenced but the major flip is most noticeable towards Fri-Sat as stronger systems bring the return of gales, heavy rain followed by sunshine and blustery showers as well as the return of snow over higher ground.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

The upcoming Easter weekend won’t be a washout but expect heavy, gusty showers and a chill in the wind. The period between Fri-Mon will be controlled by a large depression to the NW of the UK which will drive gusty winds, hefty showers which could pack hail, thunder and perhaps a sleet, snow mix to low levels in the heavier bursts.

The models do have fairly significant snowfall returning to the West Highlands.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

While unsettled, our pattern looks to stay on the cooler side of normal through the remainder of March and I still believe we have a cool or even cold first half of April on the way.

As you can see with the GFS ensemble, the model deepens the slow eastward moving trough into the UK between day 5/10 and by day 10-14 it has heights rebuilding into Greenland and the Arctic.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

This 50hpa temp profile suggests cold air lingers throughout much of the mid latitudes through at least the first half of April.

gfs_t50_nh_f00

More on that tomorrow! April & Spring Outlook will be available Wednesday and East weekend forecast on Thursday!

See today’s video.

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