Models Shift With Huge Divide On Northeast Snow Event

Written by on March 18, 2016 in United States of America, Winter 2015/16 with 0 Comments

The southern is getting fired up this afternoon with a fairly widespread severe threat stretching from west Texas to the Florida Panhandle while on it’s northern edge, it’s bringing a tricky, snowy commute from Denver east into west Kansas and north into Cheyenne, WY.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: weather.com

Credit: weather.com

Within 36 hours the energy and moisture is lifting up into the southern edge of the cold air over the Middle Atlantic and here is where it gets complex and tricky.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

The reason I say that is this.

Check out the new run of the ECMWF. Less bullish in totals DC to NYC and takes heaviest snow band into eastern Long Island, Providence into the Boston, Cape Cod area.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Wow, here’s the GFS. You don’t get much different than this.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

I don’t think the cold is going to be any issue but exact position of center off the coast. As stated previous, 50 miles either way will be make or break for the Big Cities.

ECMWF surface

ecmwfued---usne-60-B-mslpthkpcp_white

ecmwfued---usne-66-B-mslpthkpcp_white

Credit: AccuWeather

Credit: AccuWeather

Credit: AccuWeather

Credit: AccuWeather

Cold air follows. How cold? I shall share tomorrow.

Now, what follows this late weekend system? EPS Control appears to pull the mean trough back into the Central US for day 5-10.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

The GFS ensemble likewise takes the trough west day 5-10. This could be interesting!

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

BTW this is March so far! One of the warmest? Depends on the second half.

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In the next few weeks, I will be talking more and more about the upcoming summer. Lot’s going on, keep it right here!

See this today’s video.

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