Weakening El Nino And Seasonal Transition Means A Drier Pattern For Western Europe

Written by Mark Vogan on March 14, 2016 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland, Winter 2015/16 with 0 Comments

Change is in the wind as we progress from winter and edge ever closer to summer 2016. I doubt the second half of spring 2016 (April-May) will be anywhere near as soggy as last year given the El Nino is weakening, not strengthening.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

We’re seeing the other side to this El Nino now with a drier, much more settled pattern evolving. High pressure is becoming more established over the UK and Western Europe.

The first half of winter saw a stronger than normal zonal jet with copious amounts of rain, enhanced by the El Nino as now that the El Nino is weakening, so the jet and southern storm track has slowed.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

It’s striking how chilly it’s been across Iberia while exceptionally warm over Turkey extending north into Russia.

Precip next 7 days.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

500mb height anomaly 5-mean. High positioned north means warmer Scotland, cooler England.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

No UK snow expected.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Next 5 days sees high parked overhead but models show that high sliding west day 5-10 which signals arctic air returning to Scand, E Europe, maybe eventually into UK.