Europe: Springs Thoughts

It’s an improving picture over the UK with today’s rain largely confined to NW Scotland tomorrow.

It’s predominantly dry and bright for most, however the coolest air will be over London and the Southeast while the mildest air will be across Scotland thanks to high pressure centred north of Scotland which means cool easterly winds are pegging back the temps in SE England.

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6C may be all parts of East Anglia can muster while we could see 16C where the sun shines along the Moray Coast tomorrow.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Now to the main topic today, spring! Hope you’ve had a chance to watch this morning’s Europe video as I share thoughts on mid to late spring. We’re still not out of the woods yet regarding winter weather given this…

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In fact we could have drier but also colder conditions lasting through much of April.

The Canadian monthly really has a cooler than normal March-May period for UK and Western Europe.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

We only have to look back at spring of 2012 to see how abruptly a long term pattern can shift. That spring was a real learning curve for me as I had called on a dry, warm summer for the UK following a very dry Feb/Mar period. However, I had failed to take on board the oncoming El Nino. Following a dry opening, the flood gates opened up and following a an overall wet Apr/May, the stage was then set for cooler, wetter.

For the last 6 years, I’ve released my summer forecast on either March 31 or April 1st but this year I’ve decided to wait until May 1 as April is a key ‘signal month’ as to what the summer pattern may have in store. I like to think that as each winter and summer passes, I take something out of it and learn and forecast more accurately in the future.

While the El Nino weakens and the prospects of a La Nina is coming on, the output is clearly different and it’s going to be interesting as to how mid and late spring pans out. In my April Outlook I shall provide a ‘spring forecast’, granted we’re technically already into meteorological spring.

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