El Nino Brought Record Rainfall To UK, Now Likely To Bring Prolonged Dry Pattern As It Weakens

Following the patchy light rains of today and across the Northwest tomorrow, high pressure is building and becomes well established over the British Isles early next week.

This blocking high positioned across the UK and really extending all the way to Siberia is splitting the east bound trans-Atlantic jet, forcing one branch north into Norway and the other south into Portugal. So any disturbed weather is going well N and S of the UK.

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Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

In between, it’s an increasingly dry story and good if your in search of some sun.

Credit: AccuWeather

Credit: AccuWeather

Some would say this is a boring setup and I guess your probably right but it’s going to be interesting to see how the ground dries and given the fact we now in a transitional period, the length of time this drier pattern lasts, could have significance later into spring with regard to atmospheric pressure and rainfall.

While there’s incredible rainfall during the early and middle point of a strong El Nino episode, there tends to be a drier pattern which develops as the El Nino weakens.

QPF rainfall projection through next 10 days.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

We’ve certainly not seen this kind of prolonged surface pressure pattern in a long time.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Parts of the UK and near continent enjoyed double figures this afternoon. We can expect this more widely through the weekend.

Credit: Meteoceil

Credit: Meteoceil

Mild days will give way to chilly, frosty and foggy nights where large variance of temperature is common with this setup at this time of year.

GFS forecast highs Sat-Mon.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Notice in the below 2m temp anomalies it has warmer than normal across the North and cooler than normal across the South. Thanks to high over low.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

That’s due to an easterly breeze in the South.

Very little in the way of snow in the West over the next week.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Given the overall setup, I can feel a cool, dry April, possibly even May coming on.

See today’s video.

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