Extreme Amplification Equals Extreme Weather Across Lower 48

Written by on March 8, 2016 in United States of America, Winter 2015/16 with 0 Comments

We have an extreme pattern delivering extreme weather and a true upside down temperature profile for mid week.

While there’s a +2 standard deviation from normal ridge off the East Coast, we have an extraordinary ‘6 standard deviation below normal’ cut off low dropping into Mexico tomorrow. That cold low could deliver unusual snowfall and record cold temps in the 40s and 50s across a broad swathe of north-central Mexico. At the very same time, with the help of a strong Bermuda high, it’s likely to be in the 80s over the Virginias and low to mid 70s into Massachusetts, possibly Maine.

Where these two air masses meet, you naturally have explosive weather and sure enough, on cue, we’re seeing deep convection erupt this morning over Texas.

Credit: NOAA

Credit: NOAA

Credit: NOAA

Credit: NOAA

No surprise we have a severe weather threat for TX, LA, AR today.

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Just look at the 500mb height anomaly, 2m temp anomaly and 2m air temp anomaly for 18z Wednesday.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

I recon mid 70s is possible even up to Boston Wed PM.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

That very trough lifts up into Texas come Thursday and east Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas and Missouri, possibly extending into Illinois could see over a foot of rain within just 3 days. Some spots may see close to 20 inches!

Credit: Weather Channel

Credit: Weather Channel

The strong Bermuda high will present widespread strong to gale-force winds through the Caribbean as well as Gulf of Mexico late week.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Hence choppy seas.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Latest GFS surface over the next 3 afternoons over the US. Note the ‘stuck nature’ of the rain and storm corridor, squeezed between the Texas low and high off the Bahamas.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

See today’s video.

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