UK Records 3rd Warmest Winter In 2015-16. How Did The Forecast Do?

Written by on February 29, 2016 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland, Winter 2015/16 with 0 Comments

On the meteorological calendar, we end winter today and commence spring tomorrow.

Credit: BBC Weather

Credit: BBC Weather

Winter 2015-16 will be remembered not for it’s cold and snow but warm and wet. The bulk of the warmth came during December, coinciding with the likely peaking of this years record tying El Nino which overwhelmed the entire hemispheric pattern.

Nov-Dec

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Although January was warmer than normal, it was closer to the average, February cooler still and looks to be ending about average but the tremendous front end warmth set the tone for this winter overall.

Credit: Met Office

Credit: Met Office

Record warm winter for London Heathrow.

Credit: Simon Cardy

Credit: Simon Cardy

Despite a cooling trend mid and late winter, this winter looks to fall into 3rd place for UK warmest and was warmest on record for both England and Wales. This is because much of the ‘colder weather’ has been focused over Scotland.

In terms of rainfall, despite a new 24-hour rainfall record being set in Cumbria with tremendous flooding in parts of Yorkshire and Lancashire, it was Scotland who endured their wettest winter on record and it was a tie for the wettest in Northern Ireland.

Credit: Met Office

Credit: Met Office

From Met Office

Looking at the Central England Temperature (CET), the longest temperature record in the world, this winter’s figure of 7.0C currently makes it the warmest in the series (back to 1659), beating the previous record of 6.8C in 1868-69.

MO Stats

Early Mean temperature (deg C) Sunshine (hours) Rainfall (mm)
winter 2015/16 Actual Anomaly (81-10) Actual Anomaly (81-10) % Actual Anomaly (81-10) %
UK 5.6 1.8 137 87 515 156
England 6.6 2.4 162 92 333 144
Wales 6.4 2.2 127 79 757 174
Scotland 3.7 1.0 101 78 756 161
Northern Ireland 5.4 1.1 121 82 489 156

No doubt about it, it was warm this winter but it was warm back in 1868-69 also.

Extract from Times newspaper back on Feb 23. Via Climate Realists

Extract from Times newspaper back on Feb 23. Via Climate Realists

Scoring Forecast Against Reality

Winter forecast. Released back on Nov 1.

One aspect I would say I was most disappointed about with this year’s winter forecast was that I feel I likely overplayed the cold potential and underestimated the intensity and duration of warmth. I always feared the degree of influence from the El Nino but swayed colder for mid and late winter which was wrong. Yes it cooled but not as much as I had forecasted.

As we look towards March, it’s interesting to see the BBC and Met Office now mentioning the prospects of March being coldest with stratospheric warming influence. I’ve been mentioning this for over a week now…

See this morning’s video for more thoughts on how the winter went.

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