While the next two lows in the series are likely to track west of the DC to Boston corridor, the ECMWF says it’s 3rd time lucky Fri-Sat as a cold trough deepens, forcing the storm track south of DC.
First of all, we have another major storm system this week which is likely to bring a sizable snow swath through the Midwest while severe weather reignites within the warm sector which could include the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast but likely the Tennessee Valley.
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NORTH DAKOTA SETS NEW FEBRUARY HEAT RECORD
With the next system driving wind, rain and snow onto the West Coast, we knew it was going to be an unusually warm day on the Plains yesterday 10-20 above normal was expected but 70s making it all the way to North Dakota?
With dry, warm and windy comes high fire danger today.
This comes just over a week after all-time February record highs were set in Nebraska with a 92 recorded in Kansas.
The Plains warmth spreads through the Ohio Valley and reaches the Mid-Atlantic today.
By mid week the current WC system is likely a big headache over the Heartland as shown at the top of the post.
I am particularly watching the late week and next weekend scenario as the warmth sweeps in then gets kicked out by building cold over eastern Canada seeping into New England.
While system 2 lifts out, the trough deepens in it’s wake and with colder area left behind, the next system crossing the central plains tracks further south. Exact positioning is crucial but the ECMWF supports a track conducive for an I-95 snowstorm including DC.
As for still drought stricken California, well it looks as though a wetter spell is coming as we go into March following a disappointing Jan-Feb.
GFS 10-day accumulated precipitation total.
Unlike 98 where it was all about the record rainfall, in 2016’s Super El Nino winter will probably be remembered more for heat, particularly February. March is going to be critical in terms of building reservoirs ahead of the dry season.
See this morning’s video for the discussion.
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