-AO/+NAO Developing Next Week Means A Colder But Still Atlantic Pattern With Some Snow For UK

As we enter the Feb 5-10th period, it doesn’t look as though we truly loose the Atlantic influence but it does appear we turn our mean flow from west to northwest with lows still impacting but with colder air which increases the chance of snow to increasingly low levels.

The GFS operational does show a slow down of the upper air flow which allows heights to rise out over the Atlantic while lows to the east drag down arctic air. Winter is by no means done with us yet. In fact the worst may be yet to come later February into March.

Take a look at the latest GFS ‘snow on the ground’ forecast for a week today.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

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10 days from now.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

GFS surface shows the subtle height rises to our west which turns the direction of our still very active storm track more northwesterly. Also notice though that as we have colder northerly flows on the rear of low pressure, the model sees southern track systems sliding into the cold over the UK and this may present substantial snowfall opportunities.

Note the major wind storm potential around this day next week over Europe.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

According to the GFS ensemble, the NAO isn’t expected to go negative through at least mid month.

nao_sprd2

AO on the other hand will.

ao_sprd2

Why? The strong strat warming is forcing arctic air to drain away from the pole with significant height rises throughout the region but the warming DOESN’T favour Europe at this point in time as the cold stratosphere has been pushed towards Scandinavia hence the recent sightings of nacreous cloud throughout UK and Irish skies, a cloud more common within the arctic and Antarctic and this cold aloft favours negative not positive heights beneath.

gfs_t50_nh_f00

As seen all too often, a positive NAO doesn’t mean warm and wet for UK, especially with such a strong +AO forecasted. This tends to feed colder air into lows and remember we do have a colder, snowier pattern expected next week.

See this morning’s video for the discussion.

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