United States February 2016 Outlook (Includes Video)

Written by on January 24, 2016 in United States of America, Winter 2015/16 with 0 Comments

Following the ridiculously warm but ‘forecasted’ December, January has seen winter return with an epic East Coast snowstorm which smashed records and brought DC and NYC’s 2nd biggest snowstorm in history.

Let’s not forget December and how much of a blowtorch it was.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

Credit: Michael Ventrice

CZMr1KRWIAI44hs

The shift to colder came following Storm Frank’s northward injection of warmth into the arctic and distortion of the strong polar circulation.

z500_nh_30d_anim

What a difference a month and indeed a week makes with the Blizzard of 2016.

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untitled

January 21

Credit: NASA

Credit: NASA

January 24

Credit: NASA

Credit: NASA

New York City last night.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

Credit: Michael Ventrice

Washington DC

Credit: Mark Robinson ‏@StormhunterTWN

Credit: Mark Robinson ‏@StormhunterTWN

Credit: NWS

Credit: NWS

Credit: NWS

Credit: NWS

66 inches sets a new North Carolina record

Mount Mitchell, elevation 6,684ft is the highest mountain in the Eastern US and held the NC record for most snow in a storm. That record was 50 inches set back in the Blizzard of 1993. That record was smashed this weekend with the Blizzard of 2016 when 66 inches of snow reportedly fell.

The mountain saw 8.5 inches Thursday and 11 inches Friday. On Saturday, the park was walloped with 41 inches.

Credit: Google Maps

Credit: Google Maps

Extract from wunderground.com article.

A sheaf of 24-hour and storm-total records
Even as the last flakes were flying on Saturday night, a number of sites with century-plus weather histories had already notched the most snowfall ever recorded for a single storm, and/or the most ever measured in a 24-hour period. Here’s a sample of preliminary data through Sunday morning. (Thanks to Alex Lamers, NWS/Tallahassee, for digging up some hard-to-find data on previous record storm totals in the NYC area). Note that the readings below generally pertain to snowfall measurements taken during the storm and added together, with a snow measuring board (snowboard) cleared off between each reading. The final snow depth, or the amount you’d measure by sticking a ruler (or yardstick) in the snow at the end of the storm, would normally be a bit less than the amounts shown below, because of the more recent snow on top compressing the lower, earlier layers. Decades ago, snowboards were used less frequently or were cleared less often when used, which means that some past storms would yield higher snow totals if measured with today’s standard techniques.

New York, NY (Central Park)
–Calendar-day total: 26.6” (old record 24.1” on Feb. 12, 2006)
–Storm total thru Sun. AM: 26.8” (record 26.9” on Feb. 11-12, 2006)

New York, NY (LaGuardia)
–Calendar-day total: 27.9” (old record 23.3” on Feb. 12, 2006)
–Storm total thru Sun. AM: 27.9” (old record 25.4” on Feb. 11-12, 2006)

New York, NY (Kennedy):
–Calendar-day total: 30.3” (old record 24.1” on Feb. 12, 2006)
–Storm total thru Sun. AM: 30.5” (old record 26.8” on Feb. 16-18 2003)

Newark, NJ:
–Calendar-day total: 27.5” (old record 25.9” on Dec. 26, 1947)
–Storm total thru Sun. AM: 27.9” (old record 27.8” on Jan. 7-8, 1996)

Allentown, PA
–Calendar-day total: 30.2” (old record 24.0” on Feb. 11, 1983)
–Storm total thru Sun. AM: 31.9” (old record 25.6” on Jan. 7-8, 1996)

Harrisburg, PA
–Calendar-day total: 26.4” (old record 24.0” on Feb. 11, 1983)
–Storm total thru Sun. AM: 30.2” (old record 25.0” on Feb. 12-13, 1983)

Philadelphia, PA:
–Calendar-day total: 19.4” (record 27.6 on Jan. 7, 1996)
–Storm total thru Sun. AM: 22.4” (record 31.0” on Jan. 6-8, 1996)

Baltimore, MD (Baltimore-Washington Airport and earlier sites):
–Calendar-day total: 25.5” (old record 23.3” on Jan. 28, 1922)
–Storm total thru Sun. AM: 29.2” (old record 26.8” on Feb. 16-18, 2003)

Washington, DC (Dulles)
–Calendar-day total: 22.1” (record 22.5” on Feb. 11, 1983)
–Storm total thru Sun. AM: 29.3” (record 32.4” on Feb. 5-6, 2010)

Washington, DC (National Airport and earlier sites):
–Calendar-day total: 11.3” (record 21.0” on Jan. 28, 1922)
–Storm total thru Sun. AM: 17.8” (record 28.0” on Jan. 27-29, 1922)

This storm was like a frozen version of Sandy by producing major coastal flooding with 2-5ft surge resulting in scenes like this in Manasquan, NJ.

Credit: Manasquan Borough ‏@ManasquanOEM

Credit: Manasquan Borough ‏@ManasquanOEM

GFS shows coldest temps where snow cover is deepest tonight.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

It’s been a cold past 5 days but a pullback is now underway, in part down to a cooling of the polar stratosphere and return to a +AO/NAO.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

Credit: Michael Ventrice

ao_sprd2

nao_sprd2

However, there’s a warming trend this week.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

However, there is strong evidence supporting the strongest warming at 10mb over the arctic now commencing. This wave 1 into 2 warming looks to significantly dislodge and weaken the vortex with warming flowing across much of the arctic into North America which promotes the return to a strong -AO and positive over northern Canada and the Arctic.

Credit: AER/J Cohen

Credit: AER/J Cohen

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

With a strong El Nino induced southerly storm track, the pattern looks primed for plenty more cold shots and storms up the East Coast while California and West continues to see plenty of moisture stream in off the Pacific.

Interesting run of the Canadian for February.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

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TOP IMAGE CREDIT: Sally @salbal09

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