Wet, Windy, Warmer Pattern Is Back As AO Rebounds, Flattening, Strenghening Jet

Written by Mark Vogan on January 22, 2016 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland, Winter 2015/16 with 0 Comments

We’re back in the wet, windy, warmer regime with high pressure dominating the mid-latitudes while heights have lowered across the Arctic though not to the same degree as before.

The removal of the blocking high, the jet has flattened and strengthened and that means the westerlies are back with frequent spells of wind, rain throughout Western Europe along with dry, clearer settled spells in between where we can expect frost by night.

Temps this weekend will be a solid 8-12C up on last weekend with 16C not out of the question Sat over SE England with the help of sun and southerly wind.

Credit: BBC Weather

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There’s no real indication on at least the big players (ECMWF, GFS, Canadian) of a major cold pattern returning now through the end of January.

The reason for the pullback, we’ve seen a recent cooling of the polar stratosphere but there’s cross model agreement that a significant weakening unfolds through the next week or so and this should help bring the return of a negative AO and hopefully NAO.

The GFS ensemble show the warming of the 10mb level over the next week and this should helps transfer cold down, it’s just the models aren’t really seeing this yet.