UK Cold At It’s Peak, Worst Still To Come For Alps, Warming Trend Starts In West By Thursday

The cold Europe pattern with Arctic/Greenland/North Atlantic blocking is well into a weakening phase as heights lower to the west of the UK and low pressure gains ground pushing the cold surface high east into continental Europe.

Despite the gradual breakdown in this pattern, last night marked the coldest of winter for both the southern and northern UK.

For the north, surface high pressure promoted very clear sky over a respectable North Highland snow cover which allowed the temperature at Kinbrace, Sutherland to dip to -12.4C at sunrise this morning making for the UK’s coldest night of winter. The well known south-central cold spot of Benson, Oxfordshire dropped to -8.4C.

A snow covered Kinbrace railway station Feb 2003. Now a private residence (Credit: Caithness.org)

A snow covered Kinbrace railway station Feb 2003. Now a private residence (Credit: Caithness.org)

Widespread and quite deep snow cover across the North Highlands for this cold surface high to work with.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Via Simon Cardy

Via Simon Cardy

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Last night saw the first hard frost across southern Britain and northern France. It got down to -8C NW and NE of Paris this morning.

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Tonight could see a degree or two lower southerly winds begin to pick up over Ireland and slowly spreads east across the UK Thu-Fri.

Credit: BBC Weather

Credit: BBC Weather

After a very cold day from London to Paris all the way across to Moscow, tonight looks coldest for parts of SW England, Wales and northern Scotland as well as Paris and many European cities.

Today forecasted maximums

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Tonight minimums

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Big UK Temperature Difference Tonight

A bank of cloud, mist and fog draped across N England, southern and central Scotland should hold tonight’s temps between +1 to -1C according to modelling while it’s likely to be a solid 6, 7 or 8C colder both south and north where skies are clear.

gfs-tcdcclm--uk-27-C-000

gfs-TMP2m--uk-24-C-tmp2mc3

Some Winter Comparison

This is a far cry from the -22C recorded at Altnaharra back in January 2010 or -27C recorded in December 1995.

Credit: BBC

Credit: BBC

Up till now, snowfall hasn’t been a much as last winter through the Highlands. I drove up to Inverness yesterday and snow cover was surprisingly patchy between Perth and Aviemore. I found it was deepest between Stirling and Perth.

Last January saw snow piled 5ft high along the A9 at Drumnochter but this can always change and remember that I’ve February pegged as the worst month this year!

Deep snow at Dalwhinnie station last year. Same night Loch Glascarnoch (NW of Inverness) dipped to -14C, coldest of 2014-15 winter.

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Through early and mid next week the core of cold shifts into eastern Europe when Western Europe sees the replacement of Atlantic air again as low pressure pushes the cold ESE allowing the return of the dreaded wind and rain.

Weekend charts

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Saturday high

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Monday high

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The past week has seen cold and snow and I guess you could say it’s been largely run of the mill by January standards. Colder and snowier though over several parts of Europe and we’ve seen the turnaround in snowfall throughout the Alps.

The pullback is hemisphere-wide, where it’s turned cold (North America, Europe, East Asia) it will moderate as the AO returns to a more neutral state along with the NAO.

For winter weather lovers anyway, the good news is there appears to be an increase in warming up at 10mb over the arctic and with the potential for an SSWE within the next 10 days, one must consider the return of a colder pattern for the mid latitudes and hopefully Europe early to mid February.

The GFS ensemble is seeing significant perturbation of the PV and if this progresses from phase 1 into 2 then there’s increased likelihood of an SSWE towards late January or early February.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

This could support the return of a strongly -AO and potentially -NAO in February. El Nino years which support cold often focuses on February. There’s no direct suggestion of a flip back from mild to cold and the westerly, albeit weakening QBO may be strong enough to supress any SSWE but we’re still talking 10-15 days out.

qbo

See the video for today’s discussion.

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