Challenging UK Forecast, ECMWF v GFS On Weekend/Early Next Week Solution

Well the ECMWF continues to go with the extreme cold card by laying down a sufficient UK snow cover followed by a 1036 surface high which slides over the snow fields and drives night temps towards -15, even -20. The GFS on the other hand is playing it down.

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It’s the finer details that will determine just how bad this cold spell will be as stated countless times already.

Snow on the ground is more important than snow forecasts because after all it must snow for snow to be on the ground.

The period between Wed-Fri will be crucial as this is the window for the snows to arrive and lay down that reflective blanket.

ECMWF snow cover as of early Sat AM.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Into the weekend and especially early next week, the high builds in, settling things down.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

2m temperature Sat AM.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

GFS has backed off considerably with a far less cold weekend solution.

GFS projected UK snow cover Sat AM.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Rather than building a strong surface high in like the ECMWF, the GFS has a system pushing into the cold air which in fact could be a significant snow producer.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Sure enough, here’s the GFS snow cover for the following 24 hours.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

This would mark the change back to mild as that system opens the door to maritime air once again.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Whereas the ECMWF holds the cold high.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

However, even the ECMWF brings a moderation in the chill towards mid next week.

GFS meteogram for the Glasgow area shows light snows on several days this week.

gfs-hgtprs--conus-00-A-us5588-466meteogram_pcp

See video for today’s discussion.

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