With the help of Storm Frank and NOT strat warming, we now have arctic air dislodged and present within the mid latitudes including Europe.
No evidence suggests pattern shift is down to a warming stratosphere.
But Frank’s northward shove of warmth? Yes.
Note at the very end of the animation and surge of strong positive towards the pole in reaction to Frank.
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This is responsible for the above normal heights in the arctic next 5 days and beyond.
Highs and lows yesterday.
Cold as it may be over Europe from Germany east, notice we don’t see the same cold over the western fringes of the continent and UK/Ireland. The reason is the Atlantic remains active and dominant and that’s in a large part down to a westerly QBO as seen below. This is likely holding the NAO positive but notice that’s it’s way down and way off the strength and persistency of 2013-2014.
The fact it’s trending down may open the window for more of a late -NAO this winter as forecast.
Note the persistency in negative over Greenland, positive over the continents through December thanks to the above, combined with strong polar vortex and El Nino.
Added heat and moisture is largely down to El Nino I believe.
Note the latest GFS ensemble NAO forecast.
Oh and as for the AO…
As cold of arctic origin gains ground and builds west and south over the continental major snows have been breaking out over the mountainous Balkans, Alps, N Greece and a large swathe of Turkey as Med air meets arctic.
Lows continue to spin in from the Atlantic means the wet and windy regime continues for the UK but these lows are being deflected a little further south and this is allowing modestly colder air into the mix.
The focus early this week is rainfall over northeast England and Scotland as low pressure centred over the Midlands is pulling moisture in from the SE and with the stuck nature, rains just keep on going with large totals expected over the eastern upslopes.
As we go through this week, lows will track further south and that will allow lows to tap at least the western edge of the cold over the continent keeping days seasonably colder with more snow than rain over the high elevations.
With west QBO continuing to hold a positive NAO despite colder Europe, note how the arctic air never truly reaches the UK this week.
With presence of arctic air bleeding into western Europe and a slightly more southerly storm track, big snow amounts could stack up within the Grampians and Highlands as we go through the next 7 days and the GFS certainly sees the snow build.
Next 7 days
10 days
The big question you may well be asking is this, has Frank caused a temporary flip in the arctic height field and will we go back to negative or is this a trend into mid and late winter?
Certainly is the models are correct, this warming into the arctic is a trend.
GFS day 6-10 and 11-15 holds the positive over the Arctic as well as Greenland and with the west QBO above trending down, that may allow the NAO to finally go negative late Jan into Feb as the GFS suggests.
See this morning’s video for the discussion.
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