UK & EUROPE: Frank Leaves Soggy Legacy But Could He Bring Us Winter?

Written by on December 31, 2015 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland, Winter 2015/16 with 0 Comments

Powerful 929mb Storm Frank sure left a legacy behind creating havoc over many parts of the UK and Ireland, particularly Scotland this time.

He’s also been responsible for pumping incredible warmth all the way to the pole where it went from -20s to 0C while Svalbard north of Norway topped +10C yesterday when they should be at -10C. This will create a ripple effect within the entire hemispheric system and the models are responding but in a way that I didn’t expect.

Here are some of the more memorable flood images from yesterday.

Dailly, Ayrshire

Credit: Scottish Fire and Rescue

Credit: Scottish Fire and Rescue

A93 Braemar to Ballater.

Credit: Fiona Pringle

Credit: Fiona Pringle

M74 at Abington.

Via BBC

Via BBC

Dumfries

Via BBC

Via BBC

Rest and Be Thankful

Credit: Bear Scotland

Credit: Bear Scotland

After a cold, showery and blustery New Years Eve, skies should clear with falling temperatures prior to midnight.

Tomorrow morning will dawn on a frosty, icy note!

Credit: BBC Weather

Credit: BBC Weather

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The models are all over the dramatic flip in the height field over the polar region. Dominated by low pressure over high pressure, strong westerlies with wind, rain and warmth has been the rule through November, December but things look to be changing now.

Despite strong positives filling the polar atmosphere at 500mb, even over Greenland, we still need to watch as there’s no guarantee that the cold spreading westwards over Europe truly reaches the UK or Ireland. Take 2011-12 for example. A brutal period of winter from late January through February following an SSWE but positive heights extending from Greenland to UK shielded us from the majority of the cold over the continent.

However, I like the trend I’m seeing.

GFS ensemble 5-day mean.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

gefs-hgt--world-360-C-500hgtanom_5d_white

The next 10 days I think we see an increased battle between westward pushing cold and eastward pushing mild and wet.

ECMWF and GFS both show a healthy snow cover 10 days from now.

ecmwfued-null--europe-240-C-frozen_cover10

gfs-null--europe-240-C-frozen_cover10

More in today’s video!

More tomorrow. Have a great night and stay safe!

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