No question, the first month of winter 2015-16 has been ruled by the powerful El Nino in the Pacific. We are likely look at the warmest December east of the Mississippi and Christmas eve may well host the warmest December days in recorded history.
Sure ain’t gonna FEEL like Christmas Eve this year….
Philadelphia expected to set a new all-time December record with a forecasted high of 74.
Christmas Eve forecasted to be warmest in history for almost ever site in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.
While cooler in Northeast Christmas Day, it may be even warmer than Christmas Eve over the Southeast!
Credit: weather.com
Heck of a lot of liquid to fall over the next 7 days too.
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Warm water stacked up against the South American coast and sheer maturity of the El Nino is making for a very warm hemisphere overall but there is signs of chance over the pole which the models are catching on to.
Current global SST’s.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Typically, a strong to super El Nino with warmest waters in close to SA makes for a warm US winter. Up till now, that’s been the case but there is some key differences between this year and 1997-98.
Note the cooling within Nino 1.2.
There’s good indication that as waters cool in close to SA and warm pool focuses more towards the central Pacific (modoki) then there’s likely to be a shift in the high latitude atmosphere.
Up till now we’ve seen a very strong, tight polar vortex centred directly over the pole. This may or may not be related to the El Nino but there’s consistency in the models of a weakening of the PV, transfer of energy between stratosphere and troposphere which in turns causes warming of the stratosphere and cooling of the troposphere and 500mb level.
Check out warming between Asia and North America at 50mb between now and next 7 days. Same type of warming witnessed both last winter and winter prior.
Now take a look at the GFS ensemble 500mb height anomaly snap shots into January.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
CFSv2 weeklies.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Still a ways out but at the very least the models are seeing height rises further north.
A likely reaction to the strat warming in the right place at 50mb occurring now.
See video for the discussion. More on this tomorrow.
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