A Brown Christmas Expected For At Least 80% Of UK, Christmas Eve Storm Brewing?

38 out of the last 54 Christmas Days have seen falling somewhere in the UK. Widespread white Christmases (including snow cover) are much rarer. The last one was the record-breaker of 2010 which not only saw 83% of station reporting snow on the ground but 19% of stations also recorded snow falling.

2015 looks brown for at least 80% of the United Kingdom, pretty much the 99.5% of the population, we cannot rule out some snow falling over Highland Scotland but this is more likely ABOVE settlements as cooler air flows in from the Atlantic in the wake of a deep low passing over Christmas Eve.

This Christmas week starts off where last week ended, mild with wind and rain at times and focused over specific regions. While it was sunny in one place, showery in the other, parts of Wales and Northwest England received another soaking with 2-3 inches in places.

WIND and RAIN will be the most noteworthy aspect to this week.

BBC Weather

BBC Weather

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The first in a quick succession of fronts sweeps in today, the 2nd on Tuesday and then we may have a full fledged storm on our hands Christmas Eve.

Monday.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Tuesday

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Christmas Eve

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

ECMWF also sees it…

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Providing models don’t back down in track or strength, this thing looks to be a major wind machine which could cause damage, power cuts as well as further flooding. Widespread gales or possibly severe gales over Ireland, Scotland, Northern England and Wales.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Total rainfall expected over the next 5 days.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

In midst of warmest December on record?

We’re in the midst of potentially the warmest December on record and possibly the warmest November-December period on record. With less than one week till Christmas, parts of England saw a summer-like minimum of 14.2C at Chivenor while a high of 17.1C was reached at Gravesend, Kent yesterday.

Credit: Met Office

Credit: Met Office

The warm low Saturday morning may have set a new December record for England while the high fell just short of the December record for England.

Credit: Met Office

Credit: Met Office

Model Projection for Christmas Day

Here the GFS and ECMWF ‘snow on the ground’ for 12z Friday. Very interesting!

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

GFS surface 12z Friday

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

850mb at 12z Friday

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

At this stage, Christmas Day looks seasonable across Northern Ireland, Scotland and Northern England, milder the further south over Wales and England you are.

Straight from the Met Office

How likely is a White Christmas?

We can accurately forecast if snow is likely on any given Christmas Day up to five days beforehand. In terms of the statistical likelihood of snow based on climatology, we know that a snowflake has fallen somewhere in the UK on Christmas Day 38 times in the last 54 years, so we can probably expect more than half of all Christmas Days to be a ‘White Christmas’.

However the more Dickensian scenes of a widespread snow lying on the ground on Christmas Day is much rarer. There has only been a widespread covering of snow on the ground (where more than 40% of stations in the UK reported snow on the ground at 9am) four times in the last 51 years.

Is warm first half to winter a precursor to January, February?

Not necessarily. You’ll find that down through the years, plenty of winters have started warm and the warmth just held on through the rest but there are some which turned more seasonable and a select few which flipped from one extreme to the other. Take 1946-47, the November of 1946 saw a new UK record high (broken last month), a warm December and first half to January but it completely flopped from Jan 22 and exceptional snowfall as cold lasted through March.

At this moment in time, though there’s stratospheric warming beginning to show, the type of warming looks to favour US cold in January but not so much Europe. However this may change. We shall need to wait and see.

7 days out

gfs_t50_nh_f168

10 days out

gfs_t50_nh_f240

See this morning’s video for the discussion.

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