WESTERN EUROPE: Flood And Gale Threat Increases As We Approach Christmas

The big story in the past week has been the level of warmth rather than storminess. The jet stream weakened following a hyper active open to the month.

The slacker jet has meant lows have been held largely west of the UK thanks to a more dominant high over Europe. This setup has meant a persistent flow straight NNE from a warm Azores and Africa. Lows and their fronts have sent these warm surges north in waves! Yesterday MORNING indeed saw the highest temp of the month in the Northwest Highlands would you believe. At 5am, Achnagart reported 17.2C.

An unusual mid-December UK max/min for yesterday.

Credit: Met Office

Credit: Met Office

Daily records approached yesterday based on 0900 readings YESTERDAY.

Credit: CoolWx.com

Credit: CoolWx.com

Credit: CoolWx.com

Credit: CoolWx.com

TODAY’s approach on records based on 0900 readings.

Credit: CoolWx.com

Credit: CoolWx.com

ID City Country Current
Temp.
(°F)
Unofficial Daily /
Monthly / Alltime
Record (°F)
Margin of
Unofficial Daily
Record (°F)
Year of Unofficial
Daily / Monthly /
Alltime Record
Database
Length
(years)
ID
UMKK Kaliningrad/Khrabrovo Airport Russia 50.0  45.9    55.9   102.0 +4.1 1989  1959  1957 70 UMKK
ESCF Linkoping / Malmen Sweden 50.0  46.0    54.5    94.3 +4.0 2003  1980  2012 38 ESCF
ESSV Visby Flygplats Sweden 48.2  44.6    52.9    91.8 +3.6 2014  1981  1976 42 ESSV
ESSP Norrkoping Sweden 50.0  46.4    55.4    91.4 +3.6 2003  1980  1995 39 ESSP
ESOW Vasteras / Hasslo Sweden 48.2  44.6    62.4    93.2 +3.6 2003  1989  2005 38 ESOW
ESSB Stockholm / Bromma Sweden 48.2  45.5    61.7   105.8 +2.7 2003  1985  1975 42 ESSB
ESOK Karlstad Sweden 46.4  44.1    51.8    89.2 +2.3 1998  1995  1989 38 ESOK
ESMQ Kalmar Sweden 50.0  48.2    55.4    95.4 +1.8 2003  1980  1993 38 ESMQ
ESGJ Jonkoping Flygplats Sweden 46.4  44.6    51.1    92.1 +1.8 2014  1997  1995 38 ESGJ
EGNH Blackpool Airport United Kingdom 53.6  52.2    57.2    93.2 +1.4 2013  1981  1988 42 EGNH
ESGP Goteborg / Save Sweden 48.2  47.1    51.8    91.4 +1.1 2003  1981  1998 38 ESGP
ENCN Kristiansand / Kjevik Norway 50.0  49.3    54.0    91.4 +0.7 1992  2010  1980 53 ENCN
ESIB Satenas Sweden 46.4  46.2    64.4    89.8 +0.1 2003  2010  1987 42 ESIB
EGHE Scilly, Saint Mary’S United Kingdom 55.4  55.2    71.6    85.8 +0.1 1997  1933  2004 52 EGHE
LIVC Monte Cimone Italy 44.6  44.6    59.0    84.2 0.0 1988  1970  1985 49 LIVC
FMMT Tamatave Madagascar 89.6  89.6   107.6   107.6 0.0 1999  1980  1980 42 FMMT
ETNS Schleswig-Jagel Germany 50.0  50.0    57.2    98.6 0.0 2014  1996  1995 39 ETNS
ESDF Ronneby Sweden 48.2  48.2    53.6    91.2 0.0 2014  1981  2000 42 ESDF
EPPO Poznan Poland 51.8  51.8    59.0   100.0 0.0 1989  1980  1998 58 EPPO
EPGD Gdansk-Rebiechowo Poland 50.0  50.0    61.0    99.0 0.0 1936  1980  1976 61 EPGD
ENZV Stavanger / Sola Norway 50.0  50.0    52.5    93.2 0.0 2008  1981  1958 53 ENZV
EKYT Aalborg Denmark 48.2  48.2    59.0    93.2 0.0 2014  1998  1987 46 EKYT
EKSB Soenderborg Lufthavn Denmark 51.8  51.8    57.2    91.4 0.0 2014  1980  1992 35 EKSB
EKRN Roenne Denmark 48.2  48.2    65.8    89.8 0.0 2014  2007  1992 39 EKRN
EKEB Esbjerg Denmark 50.0  50.0    57.2    91.8 0.0 2014  2010  1996 39 EKEB
EKCH Koebenhavn / Kastrup Denmark 50.0  50.0    54.3    88.5 0.0 2014  1980  1968 65 EKCH
EINN Shannon Airport Ireland 55.4  55.4    59.5    87.8 0.0 2014  1997  1984 42 EINN
EGPU Tiree United Kingdom 51.8  51.8    68.0    84.2 0.0 2008  1981  2002 44 EGPU
EGPB Sumburgh Cape United Kingdom 50.0  50.0    53.6    86.0 0.0 2003  2010  1995 38 EGPB
EGPA Kirkwall Airport United Kingdom 50.0  50.0    68.0    78.8 0.0 2013  2010  2007 42 EGPA
EGNC Carlisle United Kingdom 53.6  53.6    59.0    88.2 0.0 2014  1994  1989 42 EGNC
EGHH Bournemouth Airport United Kingdom 55.4  55.4    69.8    93.4 0.0 2014  1982  2008 42 EGHH
EFMA Mariehamn / Aland Island Finland 44.6  44.6    53.6    89.6 0.0 1998  1981  1952 52 EFMA
LFRH Lann Bihoue France 57.2  57.4    66.2    99.5 -0.1 1997  1991  1978 42 LFRH
EGQK Kinloss United Kingdom 53.6  53.8    60.4    88.2 -0.1 1993  1989  2008 42 EGQK
EYVI Vilnius Lithuania 41.0  41.2    57.2    96.8 -0.2 1986  1995  1978 59 EYVI
EKBI Billund Lufthavn Denmark 50.0  50.2    68.0    91.4 -0.2 2014  1980  1987 42 EKBI
EGOV Valley United Kingdom 53.6  54.0    59.0    92.5 -0.3 2014  1981  2004 42 EGOV
EHVL Vlieland Netherlands 51.8  52.2    56.1    89.6 -0.4 2014  1977  2004 42 EHVL
EHKD De Kooy Netherlands 51.8  52.3    57.2    94.3 -0.5 2014  1995  1974 42 EHKD
EGFF Cardiff-Wales Airport United Kingdom 53.6  54.3    62.6    92.3 -0.6 1987  2010  1974 42 EGFF
EKSP Skrydstrup Denmark 50.0  50.5    59.0    92.8 -0.5 2014  1980  1991 41 EKSP
LFAT Le Touquet France 53.6  54.5    60.8    96.8 -0.8 2014  1982  2009 41 LFAT
EGQL Leuchars United Kingdom 53.6  54.5    59.0    87.8 -0.8 1993  1981  2004 42 EGQL
EGPH Edinburgh Airport United Kingdom 53.6  54.5    59.0    87.8 -0.8 1993  1983  1987 42 EGPH
FQPB Pemba Mozambique 89.6  90.5   105.8   105.8 -0.9 2002  1986  1986 42 FQPB
EGQS Lossiemouth United Kingdom 51.8  52.7    60.1    89.6 -0.9 1993  1995  1979 42 EGQS
VOMM Madras / Minambakkam India 86.0  87.1   101.3   113.0 -1.0 1990  1984  1977 48 VOMM
ENBR Bergen / Flesland Norway 48.2  49.3    57.2    89.6 -1.0 1992  1973  1975 42 ENBR
EPWR Wroclaw Ii Poland 53.6  54.9    66.2    99.3 -1.3 1989  1996  1989 47 EPWR
CWWE Western Head, N. S. Canada 49.3  50.7    60.8    95.0 -1.4 2000  1980  1980 35 CWWE
EGPE Inverness / Dalcross United Kingdom 51.8  53.4    86.0   104.0 -1.6 1993  1989  2009 42 EGPE
VOTR Tiruchchirapalli India 87.8  89.6   100.6   118.4 -1.8 1984  2003  1994 44 VOTR
LFRQ Quimper France 55.4  57.2    66.2    97.7 -1.8 1997  1991  2008 42 LFRQ
LEST Santiago / Labacolla Spain 59.0  60.8    75.2   104.0 -1.8 1987  1987  1992 42 LEST
LECO La Coruna / Alvedro Spain 64.4  66.2    75.2   100.4 -1.8 2002  1998  1991 41 LECO
GCTS Tenerife Sur Spain 78.8  80.6    86.0   111.7 -1.8 1996  2003  2014 35 GCTS
FIMP Plaisance Mauritius Mauritius 87.8  89.6   107.6   107.6 -1.8 2001  1990  1990 42 FIMP
ETNH Hohn Germany 50.0  51.8    57.2   100.4 -1.8 2014  1996  1990 37 ETNH
ENAL Alesund / Vigra Norway 50.0  51.8    64.4    84.2 -1.8 1992  2010  1977 42 ENAL
EKRK Koebenhavn / Roskilde Denmark 50.0  51.8    56.5    91.6 -1.8 2014  1995  1996 39 EKRK
EKKA Karup Denmark 50.0  51.8    55.4    95.0 -1.8 2014  2012  1998 40 EKKA
EKAH Tirstrup Denmark 50.0  51.8    71.6    93.2 -1.8 2014  1996  1978 42 EKAH
EHWO Woensdrecht Netherlands 53.6  55.4    62.6    97.0 -1.8 2014  1950  1954 41 EHWO
EHLW Leeuwarden Netherlands 51.8  53.6    57.2    92.3 -1.8 2014  1994  1987 53 EHLW
EGVP Middle Wallop United Kingdom 53.6  55.4    89.6   104.0 -1.8 2014  1981  1985 42 EGVP
EGPL Benbecula United Kingdom 50.0  51.8    77.0    79.7 -1.8 2003  2009  1975 42 EGPL
EGPK Prestwick Airport United Kingdom 51.8  53.6    57.9    90.3 -1.8 2014  2010  1977 60 EGPK
EGNS Isle Of Man United Kingdom 53.6  55.4    59.0    84.2 -1.8 2014  1996  2008 42 EGNS
EGKK London / Gatwick Airport United Kingdom 53.6  55.4    68.0   102.2 -1.8 2014  1985  2005 42 EGKK
EGDY Yeovilton United Kingdom 55.4  57.2    60.8    97.3 -1.8 2014  2010  2007 42 EGDY
EDDH Hamburg-Fuhlsbuettel Germany 53.6  55.4    60.8    99.1 -1.8 1987  1963  1962 54 EDDH
LFRZ St-Nazaire France 57.2  59.2    62.6   100.4 -2.0 1987  1990  2007 42 LFRZ
LFRJ Landivisiau France 55.4  57.4    66.2    94.1 -2.0 1987  2010  1988 35 LFRJ
EKOD Odense / Beldringe Denmark 50.0  52.0    63.9    96.6 -2.0 2014  2012  2003 42 EKOD
EGLL London / Heathrow Airport United Kingdom 55.4  57.4    60.8   100.2 -2.0 1987  1976  1949 53 EGLL
EGHI Southampton / Weather Centre United Kingdom 53.6  55.6    60.8    95.0 -2.0 1987  1976  2007 42 EGHI
EGDM Boscombe Down United Kingdom 53.6  55.6    61.5    94.1 -2.0 1987  1981  1974 42 EGDM
EGAA Belfast / Aldergrove Airport United Kingdom 51.8  53.8    68.9    84.2 -2.0 2013  1981  2003 43 EGAA
EFTU Turku Finland 42.8  45.0    53.6    89.8 -2.2 1954  1973  2011 54 EFTU
EGVO Odiham United Kingdom 53.6  55.9    60.8    95.2 -2.3 1987  2010  2001 42 EGVO
EGDR Culdrose United Kingdom 53.6  55.9    69.1    87.8 -2.3 1997  1996  1981 42 EGDR
LFRS Nantes France 57.2  59.7    68.0   102.6 -2.5 1987  1996  2001 42 LFRS
KUUU Newport, RI United States 51.1  53.6    67.8    98.1 -2.5 2012  2013  2000 35 KUUU
EGWU Northolt United Kingdom 55.4  57.9    59.0    99.9 -2.5 1987  1982  1987 42 EGWU
FMEE Saint-Denis / Gillot Reunion 87.8  90.5   100.4   107.6 -2.7 2014  1988  1986 42 FMEE
EPSC Szczecin Poland 50.0  52.7    59.0   100.4 -2.7 1989  1933  2007 65 EPSC
EGPF Glasgow Airport United Kingdom 51.8  54.5    64.4    87.8 -2.7 1993  1989  1987 42 EGPF
EGOS Shawbury United Kingdom 53.6  56.3    59.0    95.0 -2.7 1987  1981  2002 42 EGOS
CYQI Yarmouth, N. S. Canada 51.8  54.5    60.8    86.5 -2.7 2000  1988  1987 44 CYQI
KACK Nantucket, MA United States 54.0  56.8    63.1   100.0 -2.8 1973  1968  2010 66 KACK
EGTE Exeter Airport United Kingdom 55.4  58.3    75.2    91.4 -2.9 1987  2010  1981 42 EGTE
EGSS Stansted Airport United Kingdom 53.6  56.5    68.0    96.8 -2.9 1987  2010  2007 42 EGSS
EDDV Hannover Germany 55.4  58.3    60.8   100.0 -2.9 1987  1940  1964 54 EDDV
LFOH La Heve France 51.8  54.7    65.8    97.3 -2.9 1987  2007  2014 38 LFOH
KHSE Hatteras, NC United States 69.1  72.0    78.1   100.9 -2.9 1990  1979  2001 58 KHSE
GCXO Tenerife / Los Rodeos Spain 69.8  72.7    77.0   106.5 -2.9 2012  1992  1977 50 GCXO
EICK Cork Airport Ireland 51.8  54.7    59.9    83.7 -2.9 1993  2010  2001 42 EICK
.
SCVD Valdivia Chile 39.2  36.7    32.0    19.0 +2.5 1994  1973  1988 42 SCVD
WAAA Ujung Pandang / Hasanuddin Indonesia 75.2  73.0    46.4    28.0 +2.2 1989  2005  1973 46 WAAA
KGNT Grants, NM United States 8.6   8.1   -15.0   -23.1 +0.5 1954  2011  2011 47 KGNT
KLIC Limon, CO United States -3.9  -4.0   -23.8   -27.0 +0.1 1996  1998  1984 42 KLIC
ID City Country Current
Temp.
(°F)
Unofficial Daily /
Monthly / Alltime
Record (°F)
Margin of
Unofficial Daily
Record (°F)
Year of Unofficial
Daily / Monthly /
Alltime Record
Database
Length
(years)
ID

Thank or blame this years Super El Nino combined with a very strong, cold polar vortex.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

As we head into the weekend and early next week, lows deepen becoming more energetic as the jet strengthens west-east over the Atlantic. It looks as though wind will become more of a feature into this weekend and next week.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Another pulse of very warm, moist air lifts up from the Azores across the UK overnight tonight ahead of the next rain bearing frontal system. This warmth shall lift overnight readings to between 14-16C,. This is expected to threaten the UK’s warmest December night of 15.0C set back in 1994.

GFS sees tonight’s exceptional overnight warmth.

Anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

2m temp

gfs_T2m_eu_7

Credit: Met Office

Credit: Met Office

Saturday will see another run at 17C. Keep in mind the UK December record high is 18.2C set in 1948.

Credit: Simon King

Credit: Simon King

The front pushes across Northern Ireland later today, western Scotland this evening and it’s likely to linger through tomorrow morning bringing a moderate to heavy persistent rain. Locak, possibly widespread flooding is expected with 2-3 inches over West, South Scotland, England and Wales tomorrow into tomorrow night.

Multiple rain warnings have been posted for the weekend.

Credit: Met Office

Credit: Met Office

Another low sweeps in Monday and this looks to open Christmas week on a rather stormy note.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Behind the front, showers will drive in a colder air mass with gale-force gusts and potentially the return of snow to higher ground. It’s late December after all!!

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

As we head into Christmas Eve and Day, another front looks to drop into Northwest Scotland and sink south. This thing could present another flood threat as it has a tail extending back into the subtropics and may be held for up to 2 days in one particular region as high pressure will be very strong over the near continent.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

A lot of rain expected today through Christmas Day.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Warmest December on record for UK, Western Europe? Increasingly likely based on first 15 days and forecast through remainder of the month.

Credit: Met Office

Credit: Met Office

Credit: Michael Ventrice

Credit: Michael Ventrice

GFS ensemble 5-day mean 2, temps.

gfs-ens_T2ma5d_eu_1

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

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See this morning’s video.

More Monday.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]

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