UK: Warmest December Overnight’s You’ll Ever See Temps Above June Average!

As we continue to progress through December the connection between UK/Europe and the tropics continue. First it was warmth in November, then floods early December and now it’s back to warmth once again. Any real cold, typical of December is bottled way up in the arctic thanks to a very powerful polar vortex.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: AER

Credit: AER

Check out how warm it is on both side of the Atlantic this morning!

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Northern Hemisphere is just boiling this month so far. Likely a direct consequence of the super El Nino.

Credit: Albany University

Credit: Albany University

This is probably one of the warmest December morning’s you’ll ever see in the UK. Our flow is streaming in all the way from the Azores and Africa.

Credit: BBC Weather

Credit: BBC Weather

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For perspective, the 16C (60F) reported at Achnagart in the West Highlands before daybreak this morning would be considered above normal for a JUNE DAYTIME MAXIMUM. The average low for December? 0C! so it was sitting 16C above normal. Remarkable! This is based on Scotland averages and you’ll likely find this location has lower averages…

Scotland Weather Averages
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year
Average maximum temperature °C (°F) 5.0
(41.0)
5.2
(41.4)
6.9
(44.4)
9.3
(48.7)
12.8
(55.0)
14.9
(58.8)
16.9
(62.4)
16.6
(61.9)
13.9
(57.0)
10.8
(51.4)
7.4
(45.3)
5.7
(42.3)
10.5
(50.9)
Average minimum temperature °C (°F) -0.2
(31.6)
-0.1
(31.8)
0.9
(33.6)
2.1
(35.8)
4.5
(40.1)
7.2
(45.0)
9.3
(48.7)
9.2
(48.6)
7.2
(45.0)
4.9
(40.8)
2.0
(35.6)
0.5
(32.9)
4.0
(39.2)
Sunshine
hours
30.8 58.1 87.6 128.2 173.2 153.2 145.0 137.5 104.4 74.5 43.2 24.7 1160.4
Rainfall
mm (inches)
170.5
(6.7)
123.4
(4.9)
138.5
(5.5)
86.2
(3.4)
79.0
(3.1)
85.1
(3.4)
92.1
(3.6)
107.4
(4.2)
139.7
(5.5)
162.6
(6.4)
165.9
(6.5)
169.6
(6.7)
1520.1
(59.8)
Rainfall ≥ 1 mm
days
18.6 14.8 17.3 13.0 12.2 12.7 13.3 14.1 15.9 17.7 17.9 18.2 185.8
Source: Met Office[8] (1971–2000 averages)

Peak overnight temperatures from the ‘Highland Weather’ network. Note the 18C!

Credit: Highland Weather

Credit: Highland Weather

Here’s where we should be.

Credit: BBC Weather

Credit: BBC Weather

Credit: BBC Weather

Credit: BBC Weather

Water vapour imagery clearly shows the war, moist air stream connecting Scotland with subtropics.

wv-l

Modelling showed a well above normal morning but underestimated the overnight rise…

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

2m temps forecasted for 06z this morning.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Saharan dust, what in mid-December? Yes it’s possible!

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According to preliminary Met Office stats, this has been the 4th warmest first half to December on record and may have been 1st or 2nd had it not been colder this past weekend over Scotland.

Credit: Met Office

Credit: Met Office

If this warmth continues and it’s highly likely to do so, we may be looking at the warmest December on record. 5 years after we endured the coldest!

GFS ensemble 5-day mean 2m temp anomalies through the next 15 days shows the continuation of warmer-than-normal.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

See this morning’s video for a look at the day by day weather as we head into the weekend. Looking pretty wet and windy tomorrow…

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